ECB cut good news for economy

The European Central Bank has finally done its bit for the European economy, cutting interest rates by half a percentage point…

The European Central Bank has finally done its bit for the European economy, cutting interest rates by half a percentage point - right at the top of analysts' expectations.

The cut is undoubtedly good news for the economy, which appears to be teetering close to the brink of recession, but that did not prevent the euro weakening slightly in foreign exchange markets.

The ECB points to the lack of inflationary dangers as the main reason why it can cut rates aggressively.

Recent work on its medium-term inflation outlook, due to be published next month, is understood to show a drop to 1.5 per cent from a previous estimate close to 2 per cent.

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This was less sure at the time of the last ECB meeting, and was one reason why it did not cut rates then. Another was pressure from European politicians. Belgian Finance Minister Mr Didier Reynders, in particular, had been calling for a cut.

As president of the euro group, he also has the right to attend ECB board meetings.

Central bankers never want to be seen to be bowing to political pressure.

In the week leading up to this meeting the politicians had been quiet, and one of the only comments from this week's Ecofin meeting was from Minister for Finance Mr McCreevy, when he called for the ECB to be allowed to make its decisions independently.

This follows a similar pattern in spring, when the ECB also delayed after vocal comments from Mr Reynders.

At that time, the messy process of consensus-building and political sensitivities took the market from certainty in early April that rates would be cut, to certainty by late April that there would be no rate cut.

In the end, rates were cut suddenly and unexpectedly in early May.

The signals this time underline the hope that ECB president Mr Wim Duisenberg has taken on board criticisms that it is better to give clear signals to the markets, in the manner of the US Federal Reserve.

On Monday, he indicated quite clearly that a rate cut was on the way, if not the size of that cut.

He told reporters that the ECB expected inflation to fall well below its upper limit of 2 per cent early next year, and stay there.

Asked at the news conference whether remarks by Bundesbank president, Mr Ernst Welteke, which downplayed the need for a rate cut had been intended to mislead the markets, Mr Duisenberg said: "It would be a signal that markets have to listen to me, rather than others."

Nevertheless, it is likely to take some time before the markets are completely convinced, after a series of gaffes from the Dutchman which have wrong-footed or confused the markets.

Perhaps the main reason for the larger cut this time around is that growth is clearly flagging quite badly and predictions for a recovery at any point next year are completely subjective.

As one analyst noted, the predictions of economic recovery in any quarter next year are really a fantasy and are not based on expectations of an upturn in any particular indicator.

As Mr Dermot O'Brien, chief economist at NCB, points out, the rate cut will support growth from Germany to Italy, while the ECB's new focus on growth is very good news in the current environment. It will also lend some support to the Irish economy over the coming months, as recessions are generally less intensive if there is cheap money available.

According to Mr Austin Hughes, chief economist at IIB Bank, the £1 billion (€1.27 billion) which has been cut from borrowing costs will add about £300 million and possibly more to consumer spending.

"In very crude terms, that would be the equivalent to the spending power generated by an additional 10,000 to 15,000 jobs," he noted.

The cut also clears the decks for the euro changeover, and the ECB probably hopes it sends a signal to finance ministers that tax and spending need not be loosened.