ECB unlikely to change rates despite inflation

The European Central Bank (ECB) is to discuss interest rates on Thursday, but the strong euro and sluggish growth have left economists…

The European Central Bank (ECB) is to discuss interest rates on Thursday, but the strong euro and sluggish growth have left economists expecting no change even though inflation is continuing to exceed the bank's target.

Of 60 economists surveyed by Reuters, not one predicted a rate rise this week, and only one expected a rise during this quarter.

Should rates stay unchanged, comments from the ECB will be scrutinised for further hawkish rhetoric on inflation which, at 2.3 per cent, is 0.3 per cent above the target level.

French and German industrial production figures for November, due for release tomorrow, are not expected to show much progress after mixed results in the last quarter. French manufacturers' confidence declined last month.

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German order book statistics, released last Friday, were significantly weaker than expected. Orders in November fell 2.3 per cent, which augurs ill for tomorrow's output figures.

Both domestic and export orders were hit, suggesting that demand at home is still weak and the strong euro is biting manufacturers.

The German ZEW survey of investor confidence will be published tomorrow, with some analysts looking for a further improvement on the back of healthier markets and lower oil prices after five months of falls were checked in December.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is not expected to change UK rates. Rates last rose to 4.75 per cent in August, and the MPC said it discussed a cut at its December meeting only after the housing market cooled.

US retail sales for December, due on Thursday, are expected to show an increase of about 0.3 per cent, excluding car sales.

Trading updates from individual retailers last week painted a mixed picture for sales in the run-up to Christmas.

A fall in weekly jobless claims is expected in the US on Thursday after a surprise rise to 364,000 last week. "The underlying trend is probably about 335,000 to 340,000, and we expect this week's claims to return to that range," said HSBC.

But the December increase in payroll numbers, reported last Friday, was lower than the consensus forecast.

The US trade figures for November are released on Wednesday, with some narrowing of the deficit expected from October's record $55.5 billion.