Economic slowdown in Asia sees US trade gap widen ahead of forecasts

The Asian slowdown took a further bite out of US exports in April, when the US trade deficit in goods and services widened to…

The Asian slowdown took a further bite out of US exports in April, when the US trade deficit in goods and services widened to a monthly record of $14.5 billion (£10.3 billion).

The April figure, the highest since the government began tracking the deficit on a monthly basis in 1992, surpassed expert expectations of a $13.1 billion shortfall.

With a contraction in traditional Asian markets, the value of US exports of capital goods, industrial supplies and automobiles plunged 2.5 per cent in April over March to $77.1 billion. Imports were down 0.9 per cent to $91.6 billion, which analysts attributed to cheaper prices for imported oil - $11.79 a barrel in April against $11.95 in March - and production disruptions in Asia.

Nonetheless, according to Commerce Secretary, Mr William Daley, the April data "show more evidence of the weakness of many economies in Asia".

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"Our economy continues to be the strongest in the world, but the problems in Asia are affecting our exports and driving up the trade imbalance."

Mr Daley said most of the US shortfall can be attributed to Japan and China.

With Japan, the shortfall in goods and services came to $5.4 billion in April, down from $5.8 billion in March but up from the $5 billion recorded in the same month last year.

Exports to Japan have fallen 10 per cent since the start of the year while Japanese imports of US goods have risen just 1 per cent in value.

The deficit with Japan has preoccupied US policymakers and was partially responsible for concerted intervention Wednesday by monetary authorities in both countries to prop up a crumbling Japanese yen.

But economists in and out of government stress that intervention by itself will have little lasting effect on US-Japan trade unless Tokyo implements far-reaching measures to pull its economy out of the doldrums.

The Japanese government on Wednesday unveiled yet another stimulus package, seen here as having been offered in exchange for US intervention and which will be the focus of talks in Tokyo between US Deputy Treasury Secretary, Mr Lawrence Summers and Japanese officials.

"Economic research is pretty unanimous in its conclusion that intervention only works with a shift in economic fundamentals," said analyst Mr Robert Scott of the Economic Policy Institute.

While Japan needs to introduce permanent tax cuts to spur consumption and growth, the United States should consider reducing interest rates as a means of driving down the value of the dollar, he added.

The deficit with China came to $3.4 billion in April, up from $3.8 billion in March but down on the $3.5 billion a year earlier.

Mr Daley noted that while US exports to China have risen 12 per cent this year, imports are increasing at a much faster rate.

"It is time for China to press forward much more aggressively with reforms that will open more of her markets to American goods and services," he said.

Elsewhere in Asia, US exports are down so far this year by 45 per cent in South Korea, 26 per cent to Thailand, 43 per cent to Indonesia and 11 per cent to Hong Kong. Exports to Malaysia and Taiwan however, are moving in the opposite direction.

In the first four months of the year, the US trade deficit widened to $49.3 billion from $37.1 billion in the same period of 1997.

"The deficit is certainly going to worsen over the course of the year," Mr Scott predicted.

"The question is whether it's going to go up by $50 billion to $100 billion or by $100 to $150 billion."