GROUND FLOOR: It's amazing how, when you're on a roll, everything seems to go right. It's the kind of phenomenon that makes me wonder about the interconnectivity of the universe.

How it is that, when you're on top of your game, even the trifling little things go your way - the lights turn green as you approach them, you find the exact change for the toll bridge in your purse, you get in the fast moving queue at the supermarket - all those small events that makes you think that you're totally in control.

And then, when things change as they inevitably do, the whole world seems to conspire against you so that you seem to be the one that everyone blames for everything that's wrong with their lives.

Which is, I suppose, the reason that politicians do their best to cover themselves in glory in the good times because they sure as hell have to take the dung heap when the bad times roll in.

Like Mr Alan Greenspan's now precarious historical position as the guardian of the US economy, Mr Charlie McCreevy is finding that the brickbats are coming thicker and faster with every day.

The adjectives describing him now are "embattled" and "beleaguered" as he looks at the bruised economy for which he claimed so much credit in the past.

The not terribly surprising information that corporation tax is now way under budget, as well as having to admit to needing to borrow for the coming fiscal year plus the thorn in his side that is the SSIA nightmare, must make him wonder whether or not he should have listened to rather than dismissing the "creeping Jesuses" of a year ago.

But listening has never been one of our Finance Minister's strong points and I have the uneasy feeling that his preferred option is to bludgeon his way through the more difficult times. Relatively speaking we're not the worst off European economy by far and so we should be able to pick our way through the debris. But it'd be easier to feel confident about it with a Minister who dealt in a little more finesse and a little less bluster.

Last week I wrote about the inflationary problems of the Irish services sector - it was therefore interesting to see that the NCB Purchasing Managers' Services Index has shown a rise from 52.5 to 53.7 in September, the second month in a row to show an increase.

This means that the sector has only seen five months of contraction in the past 30 which can't be bad for a troubled economy though it might explain continuing high prices.

I'm guessing that key-cutting is part of this sector, which might explain the totally ludicrous charge of €5 to get a duplicate key in a local franchise. No matter how much the rent and the cost of materials and the salary of the bloke behind the counter who told me how much it would cost, I simply cannot believe that there isn't a phenomenal profit margin on key-cutting at those levels. It almost makes €4 for a takeaway coffee seem reasonable!

The firms who contribute to the Service Index survey indicated that they were still seeing higher costs, mainly in insurance and wage bills as well as higher oil prices. Nevertheless business confidence is actually stronger than it was this time last year although still lower than at the beginning of 2002.

While this is reasonably good news for employers, times are more difficult for those looking for jobs because overall staffing levels have fallen for the third month in a row.

Basically any increased business is being dealt with by those already on the payroll and it seems that where people leave jobs those vacancies are still not being filled.

While the world economy is still riding some very choppy waters, the news from the US continues to be mixed.

The Institute of Supply Management announced that US manufacturing activity contracted in September.

The level of 49.5 (down from 50.5 last month) is below the break-even level of 50 that all these surveys use and confirms that the economy is struggling.

However unemployment is down very slightly - to 5.6 per cent from 5.7 per cent in August, which is somewhat better than most economists had forecast. The corollary of this report, though, was that analysts agreed that the Fed was unlikely to cut rates on the back of the numbers, which disappointed equity watchers everywhere.

A number of commentators are trying to make out that the employment numbers signify the US economy has finally turned the corner but I'm not holding my breath yet.

Realistically, employment has hovered between 5.6 - 6.0 per cent over the last year, so being at the lower level of the range might be a little encouraging but it's not enough to get excited about, especially when you think that almost 1.8 million US jobs have been lost in the past year-and-a-half.

Once again, though, what's interesting is that manufacturing is lagging services as a job provider. The manufacturing sector actually lost 35,000 jobs whereas services gained 28,000. Maybe they're all hoovering up the key-cutting opportunities. But there's still a long way to go in the States before general levels of confidence improve radically.

And despite the numbers for Ireland, I feel that we'll look into the pit for a bit more too. To be honest, we've only grazed the surface of the bad times - Charlie McCreevy's job probably depends on whether the cuts go any deeper.

Finally my appreciation to the commentary from my old friends at Ulster Bank last week, which gave us news about the listing of Weight Watchers in the States. Given the average poundage of so many Americans while still being told that they should be a size two, I'm guessing that it might be a worthwhile piece of paper to have in the equity portfolio.

Many analysts who are rating the stock agree. In recommending it to their clients they've given it a rating of "overweight". I'm glad to see that, despite the doom and the gloom, they're managing to keep a smile on their faces.