BELFAST BRIEFING: THERE IS according to the North's Economy Minister "no prizes for predicting a recession", writes Frances McDonnell

This must come as something of a relief for Arlene Foster's department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment in Northern Ireland. Because at first glance it would appear that none of her officials had the slightest idea that a recession was looming.

Or indeed have any concept now of just how bad the local economy is in the North at the moment.

Unemployment has just hit 30,300 - the highest figure on record in the last four years. Retail sales are falling, house prices have slumped and businesses are bracing themselves for tougher times ahead.

It is a nightmare scenario for any Economy Minister and her officials. So how has Foster and her department dealt with the recession so far? Just a little over a month ago one of the first responses from the Minister and her department was to caution people against talking themselves into a recession. The department cited research carried out by Oxford Economics suggesting the North should avoid a recession.

Foster acknowledged that the same report also warned of a substantial rise in unemployment in the North. But the Minister said she remained confident that the North would experience a downturn and not a recession because she expected to see some growth of around 1 per cent.

Foster is one of Northern Ireland's most capable Ministers. She is articulate and intelligent but in recent weeks appears to have developed a worrying trend towards underplaying the severity of the economic downturn in the North.

No one expects the Economy Minister to talk the North's economy down - she is its first official champion. But what you might expect of an economy minister and a key economic government agency is a degree of awareness of the current situation.

Foster claims she is "well aware of what the official statistics are indicating" but she also believes it is important not to "exaggerate our condition".

Just in case there is any doubt, not only do the official statistics reflect a sharp rise in unemployment, they also paint a gloomy picture of where the local economy is heading.

Latest statistics from the Minister's department also show there has been a sharp increase in the number of bankruptcy orders issued in Northern Ireland. In the 12 months to September the number of bankruptcies rose by 8 per cent to 1,011.

There has also been a significant rise in the number of repossessions in the North. Between July and September of this year there were 1,006 repossession actions compared to 521 in the corresponding period in 2007.

Other official statistics also point to the fact that the services sector in Northern Ireland has recorded four consecutive quarters of decline, and output from the construction sector is flat.

Key economic commentators in the North have reluctantly arrived at the conclusion that Northern Ireland is either in recession or speeding towards it. Richard Ramsey, Ulster Bank's Northern Ireland economist, says the North has experienced the sharpest contraction in business activity across all the UK regions during the 12 months to September 2008. Ramsey argues Northern Ireland is technically now in recession.

Research from business advisers PricewaterhouseCoopers suggests that the North's economy will face recession in 2009, with growth falling to -0.3 per cent and unemployment rising to 6 per cent.

Ms Foster always claims that she "appreciates the insights offered by other independent commentators". But neither the Minister nor her department chiefs appear to be willing to take on board their not inconsiderable experience on the subject.

Instead the Minister and her officials prefer to remind people that "we are not alone in feeling the effects of the downturn in the global economy" - cold comfort to the firms and businesses struggling to survive as orders fall and costs rise.

Several major employers are planning to enforce extended shutdown periods over Christmas because of a major fall-off in orders. Not surprisingly, this move has caused concern about their employees and sparked fears about their long-term job security.

French car maker Montupet and tyre maker Michelin are just two of the larger manufacturers in the North and key employers in Dunmurry and Ballymena who plan to close their plants because of a slump in demand for their products. In Tyrone the American-owned Terex Corporation is considering plans to extend its annual winter-shut period at Powerscreen.

Seagate Technology has also asked employees at its plant in Derry to consider taking leave or unpaid holidays over Christmas because of a backlog of stock.

Neither the Economy Minister nor the department is responsible for the dramatic slowdown in the Northern Ireland economy.

Ms Foster recently warned that "economic conditions may get worse before they get better". Nobody in Northern Ireland disagrees - the question is what is the Minister and her officials going to do about it.