US president Donald Trump is trying to scupper renewables and there may soon be a glut of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as geopolitical tensions and uncertainties encroach on global energy markets, but International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Dr Fatih Birol is certain on one trend: the emerging “age of electrification”.
It will not be facilitated by power generation using oil and gas; economics dictates it will be fired by renewables, he says. Of all power plants installed across the world last year, 85 per cent deployed renewables (solar, wind and hydropower), 5 per cent nuclear and just 10 per cent coal and gas.
That is not to suggest that ensuring electricity’s central role in transitioning to clean energy is easy. Birol cites abrupt power disruption across Spain and Portugal, increasingly hazardous extreme weather events and the European Union having to wean off Russian gas within months, with particular challenges for Ireland.
Looking at European and global energy trends through “the lenses of energy security, competitiveness and climate change responsibilities, I think my message is clear for Ireland: electricity is the future,” he adds.
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Birol was in Dublin this week to meet Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Minister for Energy and Climate Darragh O’Brien, to address the Global Irish Summit staged by the Department of Foreign Affairs, and to visit President Michael D Higgins.
Ireland will continue to use oil and natural gas for some time “but for the benefit of the Irish economy, preparing Irish industry and Irish society for the future,” electrification should be the overriding priority, he says. “Electricity is becoming more and more important, from mobility to data centres and [artificial intelligence], to heating.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025/03/11/the-debate-should-the-state-develop-a-terminal-for-liquefied-natural-gas/
[ The debate: Should the State develop a terminal for liquefied natural gas?Opens in new window ]
His message is “no country is an energy island; we are interconnected through energy prices, through technological innovation, through emissions” – and no country can solve emerging energy security issues on its own.
Ireland is not a significant fossil fuel producer, he notes. Therefore, it should improve energy capability with an electricity mindset, “in terms of generation, grid transmission and interconnections”, while ensuring electricity is more affordable for citizens and businesses.
This may require setting more demanding targets, he says, as we are heavily dependent on fossil fuels, notably oil in heating and power generation.
On using our wind energy resources, he adds: “I think the biggest challenge [here] is how we can simplify licensing and permitting processes; how we can be more nimble.”
He underlines the importance of offshore wind complemented by robust grids backed up with long-duration battery storage. By 2030, it will be cost competitive vis-a-vis other comparable technologies, while enhancing energy security and getting more renewables onto the grid.
[ Power demand set to accelerate in a ‘new era of electricity’Opens in new window ]
On LNG, Birol believes “it is needed for security and flexibility”. IEA analysis indicates that from 2026 onwards, there will be an increase in LNG on markets, with China “not having a lot of appetite for LNG from the US anymore”, making it more available and cheaper. “But the bedrock of the power system should be renewables.”
Ireland will need a lot of electricity. In Europe over the past five years, electricity demand has declined by about 1 per cent whereas here it increased by about 3 per cent. He acknowledges the growing demands of data centres and AI in that context, noting a medium-sized data centre consumes the equivalent of 100,000 households each day.
With the country’s growing fleet of data centres, using a fifth of its electricity in 2023 and predicted to hit 30 per cent by 2032, he steers clear of the national controversy, but adds “AI is becoming an indispensable part of our economies, our daily lives. Therefore you need data centres”.
The world’s most authoritative energy research agency, the IEA emerged in 1974 to help co-ordinate a response to oil supply disruptions but its mandate has changed. It still applies hard economic analysis to energy options, guiding major investments and government policies, but with emphasis on sustainability and low-carbon technologies.
It goes beyond assessing “traditional energy security risks” around loss of oil/gas supplies, Birol notes. He points to “emerging risks” especially new forms of supply chain disruption.
Added to that are upended US energy policies. Politico reported last month that Trump administration officials were attempting to block the IEA from producing data that the US government argues “favours renewable power over fossil fuels”.
It quoted two sources who confirmed at recent meetings that US officials pushed the body, which publishes influential energy market forecasts, to cease its work promoting the global shift to clean power and net-zero emissions. Tommy Joyce, a Trump supporter and acting assistant secretary of international affairs at the US Energy Department, had pushed for the organisation to go “back to basics” during the closed meetings, they said.
Birol refuses to go into detail, other than to reiterate how its mandate is set every two years by ministerial representatives of its 32 member countries (including Ireland).
Energy security is “our key mandate”, he says. It recently convened in London the largest energy security conference ever staged, “because we believe energy security is important and our work is becoming more dangerous [and] will be even more important in the future. But we also believe we have to make our energy system cleaner.”
Birol is assured by having 60 governments, including IEA members, on board in recognising the need for collaboration “at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, rising energy demand and accelerating technological change”.
“What emerged from our [energy security] discussions was not only a shared understanding of the challenges ahead, but a recognition that the solutions – whether technical, political or financial – will be more effective if pursued together,” he said at its conclusion.
On the EU energy market, which is dictated by gas prices, and some contend is dysfunctional (though Europe is not a fossil fuel producer), he says: “There is a need to give a second look at the process, on how prices are determined in Europe and IEA will work on this issue.”
This is in the context of having “a lot of home-grown renewables and, in some countries, nuclear power”.
Globally, oil and gas prices may be entering a period of being on the lower side compared to historical averages, he says. This will be driven by a slow down in the Chinese economy; penetration of electric cars and a lot of oil coming from US, Canada, Brazil and elsewhere – as evidenced by a fall to $60 a barrel from $80 recently. Gas markets will see huge volumes of LNG coming from the US, Canada and Qatar, he adds.
This will change the market where “gas has the upper hand”, he says, which will be good news for Europe (a major gas importer) on prices “and for the security”. It will also help “zero in imports from Russia”, while allowing renewables to assert market presence.
Birol is distinctly uneasy about supplies of copper, lithium, cobalt and other rare earth metals being in the hands of a few. That applies to mining, refining and manufacturing being “concentrated in one single country more or less in the world”: China, with 80 per cent of the world’s critical minerals.
“One country is always a risk, diversification is very important.”
Birol says there are reasons to be hopeful about the clean energy transition. Four years ago, less than 5 per cent of all the cars sold in the world were EVs, last year it was one-in-five. “We will still use oil and gas for years to come, but we are entering the age of electricity.”
Rising demand from air conditioner requirements amid increased global warming; electric vehicles and data centres/AI will be challenging, he admits.
Climate change is an energy security issue too, Birol adds. “More than 85 per cent of emissions causing climate change come from energy. So without fixing the carbon energy sector, we have no chance whatsoever to solve our climate change problem. We shouldn’t forget, in the middle of so many crises, that climate is still the most serious challenge for all of us.”
All these challenges need collaboration, he says, “but I have to be frank ... I think the wind is blowing in the wrong direction as far as international co-operation is concerned.”
