After a stellar tax yield in August and three growth upgrades in as many weeks, Exchequer returns for September serve to deliver a dose of reality before Budget 2015 in a fortnight.

The Government went back to work last month with taxes running close to €1 billion ahead of target. These new figures show the surplus had narrowed to €703 million by the end of September, although a further €220 million is awaited from the levy on pension funds.

The September returns are crucial, as they form the basis on which Minister for Finance Michael Noonan will finalise the financial plan for 2015. Any significant uplift in revenue over and above target would have intensified pressure for a giveaway.

That’s not the case now. In reality, the fact that targets were missed in key tax bands may play into Mr Noonan’s hand as he urges Ministers to curtail their demands.

While a modest income tax cut is still on the agenda, these figures demonstrate that there really is very little leeway. A “neutral” budget is still likely, with any concessions offset by increased charges elsewhere.

Fine Gael and Labour might well be at odds as to whether any reduction should target the 41 per cent income tax rate or the USC, but the figures suggest caution is advisable. Income tax and corporate tax receipts came in below target last month, but excise and VAT returns suggest consumers are spending

Still, health spending overruns demonstrate that pressure persists on the spending side of the equation. As budget preparations intensify, simlar pressure are at work in the departments of education and justice.

The Government will not capitulate to demands for a €2 billion retrenchment form the Fiscal Advisory Council and the European Commission. While the economy is flying at a higher alttitude than anticipated by many, these figures show that the tax yield is still volatile enough.