Arthur Beesley: Full steam ahead – return of domestic demand

Annual GDP growth of 7% in third quarter of year outstrips all other euro zone countries and most official forecasts

Only Norway – not an EU member state – has faster growth   than Ireland’s in Europe these days
Only Norway – not an EU member state – has faster growth than Ireland’s in Europe these days

A new batch of quarterly national accounts points to solid growth momentum as the economy heads into 2016, leading many analysts to invoke the “Celtic Tiger” of old. At the level of both top-line data and underlying trends, the figures suggest the level of economic activity continues to broaden.

Annual gross domestic product growth of 7 per cent in the third quarter of the year outstrips all other euro zone countries and most official forecasts. Only Norway – not an EU member state – has faster growth in Europe these days.

With the budget deficit in rapid decline and the accumulation of new debt virtually at a halt, the increasing size of GDP quickens the pace at which key deficit and debt ratios are coming down. This should ease the management of the public finances next year. Ireland is coming ever-closer to meeting binding fiscal targets. With the election imminent, solid growth makes the preparation of political plans to run the economy a good deal easier. Output is on the rise in all business sectors.

Although GDP is the main metric for budgetary calculations, economists tend to prefer the gross national product measurement, as it strips out the impact of Ireland’s large multinational sector.

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On a GNP basis, however, the figures also reflect a step-change in activity. GNP was up 3.2 per cent on an annual basis in the third quarter of the year and up 5.6 per cent in the nine months to September. An 0.8 per cent GNP contraction in July-September compared with the previous quarter reflects trends in the repatriation of profits from Ireland by multinationals.

Look deeper into the data. The big story this year and last is the advance of domestic demand – activity originating within the State itself as a result of increased spending by consumers, business or the Government. Such demand was absent in the early phase of recovery, which was led by the export sector. Now it’s back.

The Central Statistics Office data for the third quarter of the year points to an annual rise of 3.6 per cent in personal consumption, the largest component of domestic demand. This embraces a 9.6 per cent rise in spending on goods, in line with retail sales data. The increase takes account of a big jump in motor sales and increased motor fuel and medical goods sales.

Still, overall expenditure on service was down 1.1 per cent year on year, reflecting lower spending on communications, insurance and electricity. Capital investment – described in CSO data as capital formation – rose 35.8 per cent on an annual basis in the third quarter. This figure bears scrutiny. It takes account of an overall advance of only 0.9 per cent in building activity, a tally questioned by some, as it appears to lag the increase in employment in the sector.

However, construction investment features in the national accounts only when projects are completed. Construction of new dwellings is up 11.3 per cent on an annual basis and other buildings and construction activity is up 3.3 per cent. Other capital investment activity was up by more than 50 per cent on an annual basis, but it’s not all one-way traffic. Some investment segments have increased hugely, but others are well down.

For example, a €5.3 billion increase in investment in “intangibles” reflects the patriation into Ireland of patents and other assets by a number of companies. The figures also reflect a €1.6 billion decrease in expenditure on aircraft, down from a high level in the same period in 2014 when the aviation leasing sector was investing heavily. The upshot of it all is that net exports are down by more than 13 per cent, outpaced by the advance in imports which was fanned by funds flows relating to patents and the like.

A portion of the income from such patents would be expected, eventually, to find its way into the exchequer. As its stands, balance of payments data on direct investment income and income on equity points to increased corporate profitability. The increase is already seen in surging corporate tax receipts.

There is more. The figures point to 17.8 per cent rise in industrial output on an annual basis, an 8.3 per cent rise in distribution, transport, software and communications and a 3.8 per cent rise in other sectors, including the financial and insurance sectors. For the Irish economy right now, it’s full steam ahead.