Practically all public acts these days can be seen through the prism of the election. It’s no different for the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), whose recent manoeuvres might well support the theory that an early poll is on the way.

How? The NTMA concluded a €1 billion auction of 15-year bonds two days ago at a yield of 1.65 per cent, down from the 1.81 per cent yield on a €1 billion auction of the same bond only one month previously.

The downward trajectory could well have encouraged the NTMA to go again to the market in a few weeks. . This final auction brought total sales since January to €13 billion, well within the target range of €12 billion-€15 billion for the year.

At one level, advantageous market conditions suggest the NTMA could easily go all the way to €15 billion if it wished. However, committing to a further sale next month could see the NTMA in the money markets right in the middle of a noisy election campaign.

In that scenario, staying off the field seems wise. Heightened investor scrutiny is inevitable whenever the election starts, and so too are opinion polls and fiery rhetoric. Thus the vicissitudes of the campaign carry potential for a jitter or two on bond markets, the last thing any debt office would want when embarking on an auction. Far better to wait until it all blows over.

This might not mean a November campaign is nigh, but it certainly points to that possibility. The same goes for generous supplementary budget estimates in a clutch of departments, the most notable of which is a social protection provision which clears the way to increase the Christmas welfare bonus. QED?