PUBLIC DEBT:There is a high degree of uncertainty around the State's public debt position, say two Central Bank economists.

Using statistical modelling techniques based on past forecasting errors, Laura Weymes and Colin Bermingham have attempted to assess the range of probable outcomes for the main variables affecting debt sustainability.

The report contains "illustrative scenarios demonstrating the ongoing correction in the budgetary position needed to support compliance with new [EU budgetary] rules". These scenarios extend to 2020.

Ms Weymes and Mr Bermingham find that under their illustrative scenarios "a structural balance of -0.5 per cent of GDP [the balance budget rule] as required under the Fiscal Compact is reached by 2020".