IT’S FREEZING in Davos, the tiny Alpine resort made famous as a gathering place for the titans of global commerce. As fast-lane business leaders discuss the state of play in the financial crisis, mention of Ireland’s dire plight prompts soothing words that all is not lost.
Swigging a Coke by a bar in a lobby, Dell Computer founder Michael Dell says he still sees bright prospects for Ireland. Like five other chiefs of major international corporations who spoke at random yesterday with The Irish Times, the damage to Ireland's reputation following the banking implosion and the EU-IMF bailout is not something he will discuss in any detail.
Leaving aside the caution that might be expected of business people who have business interests in Ireland – some of whom have carried out work for the Government – the overwhelming message was Ireland’s plight merits more than pessimism.
That star economists Nouriel Roubini and Ken Rogoff see cause to burn senior bondholders in Ireland’s banks is another matter entirely.
Dell, a Texan, is chief executive and chairman of the eponymous company. Long a major investor in Ireland, he knows the country well. Still, the decision to shift manufacturing to Poland from Limerick two years ago led to the loss of some 1,900 jobs. It was a big blow to Irish prestige but Dell insists he remains committed to Ireland. “The reality is that the manufacturing base that we had there probably stayed longer than it should have but that’s another story. That chapter is passed. What we find in Ireland is an incredibly talented workforce – bright, well-educated, eager and excited – so we continue to have a very strong operation there and now it’s growing again.”
As for Ireland’s standing in the world, Dell says there are “some changes to go through” but “I’m confident that it’ll get its house in order because it’s a place where we’re confident investing even with a negative sentiment.”
So is it fair to say that there is negative sentiment towards the country in the circles in which he moves? “I don’t have a negative sentiment towards Ireland. I still believe employers and companies go where there’s talent. Yes, there were challenges in the Irish sector, in real estate and banking, everybody knows about that, but you still have fantastic people. That’s why employers come and that’s why they stay.”
Dell is not the only chief with something positive to say about Ireland, but others mix caution in their talk.
Christophe de Margerie, the chairman and chief executive of French oil giant Total, was wearing a distinctive woollen V-necked pullover. He dismissed outright the notion that Ireland’s standing has been laid low by the crisis and would jump at a chance to visit Ireland. “Frankly, it has not been hurt,” he says when asked about reputational damage.
Probe a little further, however, and de Margerie is quick to argue that Ireland’s 12.5 per cent corporation tax rate merits review. “I’m just saying how long can you do it? And how long can you be different from others in a system where we are living in the same economy?”
Such thinking chimes with the views of Nicolas Sarkozy, the combative French president, but de Margerie says there is a lesson here for all countries. Low taxation has limits and cannot be considered a “miracle system”, he argues. “It’s more a general statement. Just like things you subsidise for too long, or incentives which are not based on something concrete and real, just be careful with this. It cannot last forever.”
Pinstripes span the room. Across the way stands Sir Martin Sorrell, ebullient chief of the vast advertising and communications group WPP. Again the argument is made that Ireland’s salvation lies in its youthful population – but Sir Martin makes the case that fiscal rectitude is paramount.
“The Irish population is youthful, well-educated, the workforce is extremely intelligent and I think the prospects in the longer term, as long as they get it right obviously in the short term, will be better,” he says.
“Everybody is faced with similar issues. How do you get your house in order in the short term and then how do you lay down a strategy based on education, technology and infrastructure that works in the longer term. Even America faces that issue.”
Ben Verwaayen, the Dutch chief of telecoms giant Alcatel-Lucent, sees little merit in doling out blame for Ireland’s parlous position. “I think Ireland has a lot to be proud of. Undeniable, there is a big issue. But if we’re going to focus on the issue and not see the potential that’s there, you not only do a disfavour to the Irish people but you also do a disfavour to the very fabric of what we call Europe.
“I’m very much aware of the issues that are at hand but at the same time the boom years didn’t come out of thin air, it was because there were policies in place, there were drivers in place. If we learn from what happened there is no reason why we cannot recreate some of [that].”
Jim Turley, chairman and chief executive of Ernst Young, is similarly positive. “The brand has probably been hurt a little bit but it’s certainly repairable so I don’t see that as being a long-term challenge,” he says.
“I think Ireland is viewed as an economy that is important to the world, that has gone through a tough patch, that is getting support to get out of that tough patch but that has a great deal of highly talented people that are doing great work in a global context. So I think that there’s a lot of empathy and support for the country that I hear around the circles that I run in.”
Not far away stands Dennis Nally, chairman of PricewaterhouseCoopers. “I think there’s a number of countries around the world are going through a similar situation, whether it’s Ireland, whether it’s the UK, whether it’s the US,” he says.
But will all the push for austerity, as some critics argue, constrain the recovery? “No one has the answers here. There’s no silver bullet. It’s going to be very interesting to see how it plays out, the UK, Ireland, the way the US is thinking about how to deal with those kinds of issues.
“There are very different approaches, so I don’t think any of us know but hopefully as we all go through the next 12 to 18 months we’re going to learn from one another and hopefully make mid-term corrections as appropriate if that’s necessary.”