News this week of Michael Hasenstab’s investment in Digicel bonds for Franklin Templeton recalls his successful contrarian bet on Irish debt at the height of the crisis. The fund made billions of euro on its Irish bonds, which were seriously out of favour when Hasenstab shunned the herd and bet large on a turnaround in Dublin. Hasenstab had similar success on an investment in Hungarian bonds, but it’s never all one-way traffic with these matters.

His luck dried up when he sought to replicate the Irish feat with a similar bet on the bonds of Ukraine. He is reputed to have spent about $7 billion (€6.3 billion) buying more than a third of its sovereign bonds, but the value dropped precipitously amid conflict with pro-Russian rebels, deepening recession and an IMF programme.

As losses mount, Ukraine has been threatening to suspend bond repayments if investors don’t accept its demands for a 40 per cent “haircut” from the principal amount due. A bondholder group led by Hasenstab has rejected haircuts, saying their own restructuring proposal, based on extending debt maturities, would provide the savings Kiev requires.

A day of reckoning is approaching fast. A $500 million payment (€450 million) due in September presents a huge challenge to Ukraine, and to Hasenstab too.

How things change. It’s the same for US billionaire Wilbur Ross, who made a fine profit on the Bank of Ireland stake he bought back in the bad old days. Ross sought to replicate that with an investment in a Greek bank, which has gone sour.

WL Ross and Co is part of a consortium that ploughed €1.3 billion last year into Athens-based Eurobank Ergasias, one of the big four in Greece. Like others in the market, it is in a dire position.

Ross’s €37.5 million investment was acquired at 30 cent per share. According to Bloomberg, the stock was at 14.4 cent before the introduction of capital controls last weekend led to the closure of the Athens stock market.