Sterling’s fall key for consumers

Will Irish consumers hear the call of cross-border bargains?

Sterling: its fall in value will affect Irish consumer prices. Photograph: REUTERS/Phil Noble
Sterling: its fall in value will affect Irish consumer prices. Photograph: REUTERS/Phil Noble

In a quiet week for domestic economic indicators, there will be some focus on the July consumer price inflation figures, due to be published on Thursday by the Central Statistics Office. The June figures showed that the annual rate of consumer price inflation had nudged into positive territory, with a rise of 0.4 per cent. The monthly increase compared to May was 0.7 per cent.

One key issue now is how the impact of Brexit and the subsequent weakness in sterling will affect Irish consumer prices. In theory, a stronger euro should feed through to lower prices here for a range of items priced in sterling – from foodstuffs, to magazines and so on.

In practice, prices are unlikely to have adjusted so quickly, as businesses wait to see where sterling will settle after the referendum. However, with the UK currency weakening again after the cut in interest rates, this will be a live issue, as will the call of cross-border bargains for Irish shoppers.

The other key point of interest in the figures will be whether the upward rise in motor insurance costs will continue. The June figures showed an annual rise of a whopping 38.6 per cent.

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Meanwhile those who were rushing to get their submissions in to the Central Bank review of mortgage rules by the original deadline of Wednesday can now afford to polish it up on their laptops on the beach. The deadline was recently extended to the end of August. The Central Bank has promised a decision on what, if any, changes to expect by November. At most, a tweak seems in prospect.