Too early to assess whether intervention has cooled property market

It is perhaps too early to assess the impact of the Central Bank’s intervention in the State’s recalcitrant property market.

In the three months since its new lending restrictions came in, we’ve had a mixture of deflation and inflation. In February, prices dropped 0.4 per cent nationally and then rose 0.9 per cent in March and 0.6 per cent in April.

In Dublin, where most of the volatility is generated, prices initially fell 0.7 per cent in February and then rose 1.1 per cent in March and 1 per cent last month. Prices also took a tumble in January as people had rushed to get in before the restrictions were announced.

Now the system appears to have digested the Central Bank’s intervention and is exhibiting upward momentum again, albeit of a more modest nature, 0.5-1 per cent. Last year, monthly rises hit 3-4 per cent, hardly sustainable.

Current rates of annual inflation still look prohibitive for anybody biding their time, running at 15.8 per cent nationally and more than 20 per cent for Dublin.

It must be noted, however, that these figures take in nine months prior to the restrictions being imposed. We’ll see over the next quarter whether the regulator’s move has cooled the market or not.

Most commentators believe prices will remain on an upward curve driven by demographics, rising employment and lower taxes.

But even all these demand-side factors are trumped by the woefully inadequate supply, running at about a third of what is required, which is sure to keep pressure on prices for years to come.

It's worth remembering in the context of continuing inflation in the market that the Government and the retail banks lobbied the Central Bank not to impose an 80 per cent loan-to-value cap on mortgage lending.

They complained last year’s surge in prices was not being fuelled by credit, and therefore it was inappropriate to introduce such lending restrictions.

If the goal is simply to moderate house price inflation, the Central Bank’s intervention may be working, but whether it will generate a market that delivers affordable homes is another thing.