It is now clearly a question of when, rather than if, US interest rates will go up this year. Jobs figures published yesterday, showing a higher than expected 257,000 increase in employment in January, mean chairman Janet Yellen is almost certain to push the button, in summer or autumn.

The Fed may give some hint on timing via a statement after their next monthly meeting – apparently the key thing to watch is whether they lose the word “patient” in describing their approach to increasing interest rates. As US rates start to rise, international markets will face a key test as the unwinding of the massive monetary stimulus put in place to combat the crisis continues.

It has been a long battle. The Fed has kept its base rate at close to zero since the end of 2008, having moved well ahead of the ECB to combat the crisis. Last October the Fed started to withdraw its quantitative easing (QE) stimulus – the ECB will start its QE programme in earnest next month. There is still a lot of academic debate in the US about just how important QE has been in reviving the economy but little consensus. One clear message for Europe is the length of time it takes for policy to have an impact: the Fed engaged in three waves of QE, starting in late 2008, late 2010 and 2012.

European rates may not stay as low as the US ones for quite so long. There are some tentative signs of a slow recovery in the euro zone economy and the ECB will hope that this feeds through to inflation, particularly if oil prices continue to stabilise or edge higher.

However, the US experience shows that fighting low growth and low inflation takes time. The Irish economy may be showing some life but positive indicators elsewhere are tentative at best and serious risks remain. So the markets will look at US rates heading up and ECB rates remaining on the floor for quite some time. This is good news for exporters to the US as it should keep the euro low, and should also help the marketing effort to get American tourists into Ireland.