Brent crude rose further above $111 today, heading for a second-straight weekly increase, as investors looked to more data from top oil consumers United States and China for cues on economic health and fuel demand.
Inflation in China has cooled slightly in September, a sign the central bank may put on hold further tightening of its monetary policy that has slowed economic growth and fuel consumption in the economy.
November Brent crude for edged up 14 cents to $111.25 a barrel by 0420 GMT, after gaining nearly 5 per cent this week, ahead of the contract expiry at the end of today. US crude rose 21 cents to $84.44.
Brent's premium to US crude rose to a record of $27.26 a barrel earlier today, up from a previous high of $27.23 on September 6th.
"Prices are consolidating, on a mix of positive and negative news for oil, as the market looks for a direction to go," said Jeremy Friesen, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Societe Generale, referring to the recent restart of Libyan oil exports and concern global economic growth will falter.
On the other hand, European leaders have taken action this week to contain the region's debt crisis while recent data from the United States showed it is not on the brink of another recession.
"In this environment, we'll see some sideways trading," Friesen said. Societe Generale expects Brent crude prices to average $98.30 in the fourth quarter and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average $73.30 a barrel.
China's annual consumer inflation dipped to 6.1 per cent in September, sparing policymakers a jump in price pressures while they fret about slower growth, although stubborn food price rises showed Beijing's fight against inflation is not over.
The Chinese central bank may look at easing monetary policy that could loosen credit, Friesen said.
"If that helps consumer spending and prevents a slowdown in construction, it would be positive for global commodities," he added.
China is expected to post next week slower economic growth in the third quarter than the previous three months.
A sudden worsening in Europe's debt crisis could further mar China's growth outlook, strengthening the case for Beijing to loosen policy before it is confident it has won the inflation fight.
Pledges from European leaders early this week have briefly soothed fears the debt crisis will escalate. "Europe is starting to take the crisis a bit more seriously," Friesen said. "Hopefully we don't have to muddle through to 2012."
US crude stocks rose more than expected last week as imports rose, while product inventories surprised with larger- than-expected drawdowns, US Energy Information Administration data showed.
"In our opinion, the most bullish number out of the DOE was a 2.93 million-barrel draw in distillates, the second largest draw ever seen for this time step," analysts at the Schork Report said in a note.
The oil industry has a gloomy economic outlook, expecting recession in the next year, less demand for fuel and lower oil prices, a survey of delegates to a major industry conference showed this week.
This is reflected in US crude options activity which is focused more on managing volatility and liquidating length yesterday than initiating new positions, traders said.
Market players squared positions and took profits ahead of the November crude options expiry on Monday, and some hedgers were seen starting to reset their books for 2012.
The United States will release retail sales and confidence data later today, providing indication on its economic health.
Investors also await a G20 preparatory meeting today and tomorrow, although it is not expected to announce market-moving actions.
The EU Summit will follow on October 23rd-24th, ahead of a G20 meeting on November 3rd.
Reuters
