Elan in recovery but still running in survival mode

Elan has been making up for the sins of the past, coming clean on the exact state of affairs at the company

Elan has been making up for the sins of the past, coming clean on the exact state of affairs at the company. But after all the talking, the company must now start to deliver on its recovery plan.

In the absence of cashflow, realising its target of raising $1.5 billion (€1.54 billion) through asset disposals over the next 18 months is the key to Elan's survival. But many observers remain fearful that this is a tall order. The poor economic backdrop, the fact that the company is seen to be a forced seller and uncertainty over the value of some of the assets it has to sell suggest Elan faces a serious challenge in raising the money.

Company chairman Dr Garo Armen is confident that the target is "very realistic based on the inquiries and expressions of interest we've received". But investors will be keen to see the money start rolling in.

The general consensus among analysts is that the drug delivery business, the diagnostics business and Elan's suite of hospital products - which include products such as Maxipime, Azactam and Abelcet - are likely to be sold.

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Goodbody estimates the sales value of the drug delivery business at between $275 million and $680 million, and suggests the hospital products are worth between $400 million and $840 million. Elan could hope to get between $65 million and $160 million for the diagnostic businesses, it says. But the wide range of the estimates underlines the difficulties facing the company.

Meanwhile, Elan remains at the mercy of weak stock markets. The company has already taken a $827 million charge on the fall in value of its investments and assets. But this does not reflect the continued fall in financial markets since the end of June and further falls could force further writedowns.

All in all, the company has to chart a way through some very choppy waters if it is to survive.

Perhaps the most telling comment during the week was that made by one analyst who noted that Elan was no longer an earnings story but a recovery play.