Irish business should place itself in a position of strength by assuming that the Republic will participate in European economic and monetary union from the beginning, and that Britain will not, Ulster Bank's head of EMU planning said yesterday.

Addressing the annual luncheon of the Irish Trade Protection Association, Mr Pat McArdle said estimates of the probability of the single currency project starting on time varied greatly and were usually subjective.

Because business people in Ireland were exposed to the English newspapers and television, he added, managers might assume that British scepticism was reflected elsewhere.

"On the continent, things are different, prior to the recent shenanigans in Germany and France, for example, the odds on EMU going ahead on time were, typically, put at between 80 and 90 per cent," Mr McArdle added.

"This would also have been my viewpoint but, in common with others, I have now reduced that probability to the 60 to 70 per cent range," he added.