Stock market bulls should steer clear of the United States and Britain for the rest of 1999 and head for greener pastures in continental Europe and countries like South Korea and South Africa, according to a Reuters worldwide equity poll.
The poll established that the majority of analysts believe most of the biggest share price gains for the year have already been notched up, although 2000 could turn out to be a strong year as the global economy recovers.
Even though US profits are strong and the economy is powering ahead, some analysts are predicting only a razor-thin advance by the Dow Jones. The average forecast among analysts called for the Dow to end the year at 10,694 - up 0.7 per cent from June 10th when the poll closed - while the median forecast saw it at 10,300.
In Britain, the outlook was not much brighter for the second half with the FTSE-100. The FTSE index of 100 leading shares is forecast to gain just 1.5 per cent at 6,550 after rising 10 per cent in the first half.
But some markets in continental Europe offer good gains, supported by stronger economic growth, bond yields near record lows, interest rate cuts, strong liquidity and the absence of any major earnings surprises.
Germany's blue chip Xetra DAX index is expected to rise a further 6.7 per cent in 1999, bringing its total rise for the year to around 12 per cent. And France's CAC-40 is expected to rise by another 5.4 per cent on the back of an 11.1 per cent rise so far this year.
But Belgium's benchmark Bel-20 should deliver the best upside potential among larger European stock markets. After shedding 10 per cent in the first half, it should gain around 11 per cent from current levels this year, analysts say.
In Asia, double-digit gains lie ahead for South Korea. Japan's Nikkei 225, which has already risen 27 per cent this year on hopes the country is emerging from its economic crisis, is seen rising just another 0.5 per cent by year end, but further gains are seen next year with the Nikkei up 14 per cent by end 2000.