Esat fall highlights tech stock's vulnerability

And still with mobile phones, Esat shares took a ferocious mauling last Monday the day Wall Street fell sharply on fears that…

And still with mobile phones, Esat shares took a ferocious mauling last Monday the day Wall Street fell sharply on fears that the Fed will hike up interest rates next month. Nasdaq heavily weighted towards the techie sector suffered more than the blue-chips while Esat, a relative newcomer to New York, suffered a lot more than the Nasdaq average.

At one stage, Esat shares were off $5 or almost 15 per cent, before bouncing back to close down $3 3/4 on the day on just under $30 still a fall of over 11 per cent. Mind you, that fall came on very modest volumes and only brings the Esat share back to where it was less than a month ago. The shares bounced back $1 1/2 the following day.

The lesson here: techie shares like Esat are always going to be a volatile commodity, rising and falling by more than the market average.

Denis O'Brien, however, was by all accounts in positive form at NCB's recent equity conference, with the message that Esat is on course to meet its targeted market share in both corporate telecoms and mobile phones.

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Esat currently has 20 per cent of the corporate market and is adding to its customer base at a rate of 60 per cent per annum and would obviously benefit hugely from a favourable interconnection agreement with Telecom Eireann.

Esat Digifone, with 38 per cent of the GSM market, could have more than 200,000 subscribers by the end of the year if the current growth rate is maintained and is expected to turn earnings-positive before interest, tax and depreciation.

NCB estimates gross billings of £28 million this year, with operating losses of £16 million. Add on £6 million for its 45 per cent of Digifone losses and £10 million interest, and the net loss is forecast at £32 million, down from £40 million in 1997.