EU money train moving back on track

MONETARY union is expected to be back roughly on track next week, as the EU leaders agree to a commitment to boost employment…

MONETARY union is expected to be back roughly on track next week, as the EU leaders agree to a commitment to boost employment and meet French concerns.

The entire project was thrown into disarray last week when the new French finance minister, Mr Dominique StraussKahn, stood up in front of the EU finance ministers and demanded a delay on the ratification of the Stability and Growth Pact - the rules of financial discipline which will apply to states inside the monetary union.

While the president of the European Commission, Mr Jacques Santer, had fought hard for a greater emphasis on growth in the stability pact, when it was negotiated in Dublin last year, the finance ministers disagreed and went most of the way to meeting German demands for tough rules on financial discipline.

The problem, as one commentator has pointed out, is a difference between "art" and "science". The Germans have taken a literal approach to the monetary union rules, while the French are in favour of greater political control and "art" in the process.

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If this difference becomes magnified it could yet spell trouble. And a major problem remains that both France and Germany could have deficits this year which exceed the Maastricht criteria. However, at the moment there appears to be enough political momentum to paper over the cracks.

It is this political will which is likely to pave the way for an agreement in Amsterdam next week. The Dutch, who have the presidency, and the French are engaged in a hectic round of talks in an attempt to draft an appropriate resolution to meet the French concerns.

Meetings between French and German ministers and officials yesterday are likely to have advanced that cause and most are now hopeful that a deal will be done, although probably not until the 11th hour.

The only time formally set aside in the timetable for monetary union during the summit is on Monday afternoon. However, there are doubts that an agreement will be reached that evening. If not, there must be a possibility that no agreement will be announced until Tuesday, which could see a nervous day on the markets.

However, so far the markets have taken the tensions in the monetary union process very well. It could be that they are waiting for good news to react to, and are ignoring much of the bad.

The detail of what will be proposed to allay French concerns is not yet clear, although it is certain that the French are keen to see an emphasis on employment and on a greater coordination of economic policies. A reactivation of the Trans European Networks or (TENS) - investment projects in infrastructure - could also be on the cards.

The new British government has played an important role. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Mr Gordon Brown, like his French counterpart, was keen to see an emphasis on growth.

All officials are keen to stress that the other EU states are keen to get the new French government on side. The Dutch are also determined to get a deal done, to provide a successful end for their presidency.

The new emphasis on employment will be welcomed by the Irish government, and indeed many others, as a possible help to overcome Europe's burgeoning unemployment problem.

Average unemployment across the EU was running at 10.9 per cent in 1996. While this number hides huge variations, several of the core countries have unemployment rates above 19 per cent.

Unemployment in France last year was running at 12.4 per cent, around the same level as in Ireland and Italy. Spanish unemployment on the other hand was a massive 22.2 per cent last year while the number of German jobless has been growing all this year.

The French in particular have been very resentful that this level of unemployment should be tolerated, at the same time as strict budget rules were being demanded as an entry card for monetary union and for those inside the club. Given the extent of recent Paris demonstrations, it was clear that something had to give.

A deal to add a resolution on employment to the stability pact may overcome French concerns for the moment. But the EU leaders will know that even trickier tests on the road to the single currency lie ahead.