Euro strength and weak demand push exports down

Exports are running well below last year's levels, the latest trade figures indicate

Exports are running well below last year's levels, the latest trade figures indicate. They show that exports in February were down 16 per cent on the same month last year, continuing the weak trend of recent months.

Exports were valued at €6,840 million in February, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) figures, 200 million up on January after adjustment for seasonal factors. Monthly imports were €3,760 million, down 20 per cent on the same month last year, leaving a monthly surplus of €2,620 million.

Exporters are suffering from weak international demand and from competitive pressures, intensified by recent euro strength. Monthly exports have fallen back to levels last seen in early 2000, while cumulative exports in the first two months of the year are running 20 per cent below the same months in 2002.

Detailed trade figures, published for January, indicate that all the main exporting sectors are suffering, including the medical and pharmaceutical sector which recorded extraordinary growth last year. Comparing this January with last, electrical machinery exports collapsed by 69 per cent to 410 million, organic chemical exports dropped 26 per cent to €1,206 million and computer equipment exports fell 21 per cent to 1,192 million.

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Last year a 75 per cent annual rise in the exports of medical and pharmaceutical exports to €15,675 million supported overall exports. But total exports from this sector in January were €997 million, down 16 per cent on January 2002.

Separate CSO data for industrial production, meanwhile, show production in February was 12.3 per cent higher than in the same month last year, up from a 1.9 per cent annual increase in January.

"This tends to be a very volatile series and growth rates can jump enormously from one month to the next," says Mr Jim Power, chief economist with Friends First. He points to the quarterly figures as a better indicator. They show output level in the three months to February was 0.8 per cent lower than the previous three months.

The CSO figures highlight the diverging performance of the more modern sectors - dominated by computer and pharmaceutical companies- and more traditional industry. The annual production increase for the modern sector in February was 15 per cent, compared with 3.4 per cent for traditional industry.

Meanwhile, turnover figures - which reflect the cash sales of business - illustrate the impact of price pressures facing many firms. They show turnover was 2.4 per cent lower in February than in the same month last year. Turnover was down 7.5 per cent in the three-month period December 2002 to February 2003, when compared with the preceding three-month period.