Exceptional growth rates look set to continue

IRELAND'S exceptional growth of more than 7 per cent last year looks set to continue, according to two sets of official data …

IRELAND'S exceptional growth of more than 7 per cent last year looks set to continue, according to two sets of official data released yesterday.

The Irish economy grew by 7.3 per cent last year, in line with recent predictions, while income tax and VAT figures for 1996 are much higher than expected.

It proves that Ireland now has an extraordinary economy, Dr Dan McLaughlin, chief economist at Riada Stockbrokers, said. "We have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, the lowest inflation in the ERM and are one of the few countries which meet Maastricht criteria," he said.

"It is an extraordinarily positive picture."

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Although the multi-national sector contributed most to the outperformance last year, leading to growth in gross domestic product of over 10 per cent, domestic demand also surged. It increased by 6 per cent in 1995.

According to Exchequer Borrowing Requirement figures, the domestic economy is continuing to boom. It looks as if the economy will easily be able to match the 52,000 new jobs created in 1995.

The tax figures paint a picture off strong growth.

Income taxes are up over 10 per cent so far this year, compared to estimates for the full-year of 6.3 per cent.

Excise and VAT are also well-ahead of target at 5.3 per cent and 14.5 per cent respectively, suggesting that consumer spending is strong.

However, growth this year is likely to be lower than the 7.3 per cent growth in gross national product reached in 1995.

The problem is that export strength is not yet known with very little data available.

In addition, there are signs in recent figures that industrial production may be slowing down.

Last year, export volumes rose by 17 per cent. "Those figures are unlikely to be maintained this year," according to Mr Dermot O'Brien, chief economist at NCB stockbrokers.

Nevertheless, the Department of Finance is expected to increase its official forecasts for 1996 growth later this month.

The increase in GNP also has positive implications for Maastricht qualification. Even if the Government doesn't undershoot its £729 million borrowing target for the full-year, the higher level of national output means borrowing will be lower as a percentage of gross domestic product.

There is no question that it will not be within Maastricht guidelines for qualification to a single currency.

The Government will now anxiously watch economic performance in the second half of the year and into 1997. Next year is the year in which performance will count towards qualification for the single currency and the Government will be hoping for at least one more year of economic outperformance.

He also pointed out that the under shoot could have been even bigger than the £150 million pencilled in by Minister for Finance Mr Quinn, if an election was not due next year.