The value of exports fell by 1 per cent in October to €6.56 billion, according to the latest CSO figures. Imports increased by 2 per cent to €4.394 billion.

In September, exports had decreased by 10 per cent from August while imports also decreased by 1 per cent.

Last night, Mr Austin Hughes, chief economist with IIB, said the export figures were more subdued than expected, given the buoyant predictions for the economy next year.

He said forecasts of 7 to 8 per cent volume growth in exports next year "might look a little ambitious in the light of these figures".

Mr Hughes said the impact of the stronger euro was beginning to come through in the figures. He said that the oil price hikes and the slower growth in other euro-zone economies had also been factors.

The figures inject a note of caution for 2005 because most forecasts are based on strong exports and the reality is that it is a bit uneven.

When the January to September figures for 2004 are compared to 2003, there was a 3 per cent rise in exports. Medical exports rose 11 per cent during the period, but shipments of computer equipment fell 10 per cent.

Imports during the same period were up 4 per cent from €34,888 million to €36,458 million. Imports from China increased by 33 per cent from €1,534 million to €2,040 million. They increased by 3 per cent to €10,206 million from Britain.

Imports from the US and Japan decreased 3 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.