AnalysisThe exchequer returns should come as little surprise. Comparing the latest Central Bank lending figures for February with those of November last, the stock of private sector credit rose from €252.2 billion to €267.8 billion, or just over € 15.5 billion. A year previously the increase was around €11.3 billion. Lending activity in the more recent period was some €4.2 billion higher.

Now let's make a very crude assumption that once lent, it takes the Government about a month to get its hands on what it says is its share of that money. And let's assume that the Government's share of the take is broadly in line with total tax as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

A hundred million here. A hundred million there. On top of what the real economy is adding, we should expect that extra private sector lending between end-December and end-March would have put an extra €1.4 billion into the Government's coffers. Ball park, best guess.

As it turns out, the exchequer's tax take was, year-on-year, up by €1.7 billion in the first quarter. The numbers aren't far off and the breakdown of revenue growth confirms the growing power of lenders in driving the Government's financial position.

For the categories most closely related to activity in the housing and equity markets, the figures are quite breathtaking:

stamp duties up 44.8 per cent year-on-year;

capital acquisitions tax up 41.5 per cent;

capital gains tax up 61 per cent.

The figures for other categories of tax revenue are pretty impressive too. Customs duties are 22 per cent stronger year-on-year and excise duties are up 17.8 per cent.

Income taxes are up 10 per cent but, with employment up 5 per cent and inflation running at over 3 per cent at the end of March, they would want to be.

Another interesting feature of the figures is how they are diverging from what the Department of Finance forecast in its tax profiles for each month of the year.

In its forecast for total tax revenue, the Department was bang on for January and out by just 1.3 per cent for January and February combined.

Because of rampant March returns, the tax take for the first quarter is now 4.8 per cent higher than expected. That's a cool €436 million contribution to Brian Cowen's electoral war chest.

Like so much else in the economy, Government finances are now increasingly dependant on the great Irish borrower.