Fighting the Soros factor

Just as the holiday-hindered markets struggled to come to grips with the ongoing implications of the Asian crisis, along comes…

Just as the holiday-hindered markets struggled to come to grips with the ongoing implications of the Asian crisis, along comes speculator George Soros to raise the spectre of a rouble collapse.

The Russian crisis is likely to share top billing with the woes of Japan and others in the Far East this week as the Duma faces the prospect of a recall on Wednesday to debate ways of tackling the crisis and President Boris Yeltsin takes control during a break in his holiday - a U-turn provoked by the severity of the jitters affecting foreign investors in the Russian markets following the surprise and damning intervention of Mr Soros, who made his name during a previous currency crisis - that affecting the ERM in the early 1990s.

While markets recovered somewhat on Friday, there is still considerable concern about the health of the Russian economy and the implications any collapse in the currency might have on Europe, particularly Germany, in the run-up to EMU.

Currency speculation is fast becoming a summer sport as politicians and bankers take holidays leaving the field open to speculators in the absence of decisive action. Of course, the present troubles of the Russian financial sector do have links with both the woes of the yen and fears of a Chinese devaluation, which would spark similar moves elsewhere in the region.

READ MORE

The lack of decisive action in Japan at any time of year is becoming a major headache for both its geographic neighbours and its trading partners. The latest warnings from its central bank chief do not encourage confidence in the government's ability to adequately reform the financial system there.

With the fall in equity markets in the US, partly blamed on an overdue reaction to the inevitable effect on corporate earnings of the Asian crisis, the US Federal Open Markets Committee is not expected to throw any further surprises into the equation by way on interest rate moves when it meets tomorrow. However, it will be interested to see the trade deficit figures, also published tomorrow, which should give some indication of the severity of the fall in US exports to Asia and the implications for economic growth.

Monday

Results: Anglo Pacific Group (H1), Autologic Holdings (H1), Bang & Olufsen, Card Clear (H1), Future Integrated, ITE Group (H1), LLP Group (H1), Orion (H1), Quarto Group (H1), Severfield-Reeve (H1), Ugland International (H1), WPP Group (H1).

A.G.M.: Enterprise Capital (e.g.m.), Henlys (e.g.m.), Tring International (e.g.m.).

Indicators: Irish industrial stocks (Q1) and nonEU trade (Jun).

Tuesday

Results: Ciba Specialty Chemicals (H1), Celsius (H1), Emess (H1), Kuoni Travel Holding (H1), Mersey Docks & Harbour (H1), Newsquest (H1), Pakhoed ASR (H1).

Meetings: US Federal Open Market Committee meets.

Indicators: British retail price index (Jul) and PSBR (Jul); US consumer price index (Jul), trade deficit (Jun) and real earnings (Jul); Danish economy ministry's economic outlook

Others: Irish Insurance Federation publishes 1997 insurance factfile; ISME publishes paper on the need for effective incomes policy prepared by Tansey, Wedster Stewart & Company economic consultants; Nick Leeson, the rogue trader whose losses sank Barings Bank, seeks early release from sentence in Singapore due to cancer.

Wednesday

Results: Armitage Bros, Game, Hoescht (H1), Micro Focus (H1), J N Nichol (Vimto) (H1), NRP, Rentokil Initial (H1), Rosebys (H1), Shires Smaller Companies (H1), Weir Group (H1).

A.G.M.: Criterion Properties, Liberty, Parkland Group (e.g.m.), Trifast.

Indicators: Irish capital assets in industry (Q1); British retail sales (Jul); US housing starts (Jul); German ifo business sentiment survey (Jul) and M3 (Jul); Japanese trade balance (Jul); Canadian consumer price index.

Others: Provisional date for special mid-recess sitting of Russian state Duma lower house of parliament to debate tax and other economic legislation forming part of government's anti-crisis package.

Thursday

Results: ABN-Amro (H1), T Clarke (H1), Computacenter (H1), Clondalkin (H1), Den Danske Bank (H1), Honda Motor (Q2), ISS (H1), Metal Bulletin (H1), Save Group (H1), Trelleborg (H1).

A.G.M.: Aston Villa, Irish Marine Oil (a.g.m.).

Meetings: Bundesbank council meets; Bank of France Monetary Policy Council meets; Senior economic officials of ASEAN meet (Vietnam to Sat).

Indicators: British GDP (Q2), M4 and M0 (Jul), motor vehicle production (Jul) and building society figures (Jul); US Philadelphia Federal Index (Aug) and weekly jobless claims and monetary data; Japanese leading indicators (Jun); Canadian retail sales (Jun).

Friday

Results: Brown & Jackson.

A.G.M.: Adare (a.g.m.), Gaelic Resources (a.g.m.), Samuel Heath, Snakeboard (e.g.m.).

Indicators: Irish industrial earnings and hours worked (Sep); US budget deficit (Jul).