Filtering through the information flood

A week is a long time in politics and in markets

A week is a long time in politics and in markets. Last week, it was looking grim for Bill; Monica's star was in the ascendancy; and the Far East was jaded. By Monday, news reports told us that the American people were sick of zippergate (and who isn't by now?), Bill's approval rating was 67-72 per cent and the Asian Tiger, while not exactly roaring, was licking its wounds and clearing its throat.

Maybe those fortune cookies were wrong all the time and the Year of the Tiger won't be the catastrophe that they were predicting in December. But who knows? Another week, another bungee jump off the bridge of world equity markets . . .

Those who were convinced that the worst was over were peppering the news wires with comments like "we're at the bottom" and "the present market level has already discounted a lot of pain and hardship" which is absolutely true, but the markets have a horrible habit of demanding quick fixes and bailing out if they don't seem to be working. We've pinned a lot of hope on the assistance of the IMF, which was being given words of support at the World Economic Forum last weekend by the US Deputy Treasury Secretary who urged increased funding for it.

All the same, there are still causes for concern. Indonesia's inflation rate is at its highest in 10 years 6.9 per cent in December which was hardly surprising given the rupiah's collapse. That equates to an annualised rate of 18.07 per cent. That's the sort of number any economy can do without.

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Anyway, whether the worst is over or not, there were some good news stories about the region: interest rates lower, biggest equity rallies since October 29th and Korea's long-term currency rating being raised from B- to BB.

But there are so many news stories. We were waiting for the US figures to come out on Monday I was watching the news headlines scrolling up on Bloomberg and I wondered who manages to read them all? When the figures finally come out, they spend a couple of seconds on screen only to be replaced with some "infomercial" about greeting cards in Wisconsin or a human interest story about (again!) Monica Lewinsky. The trouble is, we've become information addicts. If a story looks half-interesting you feel compelled to access it to have a look. I'm not sure whether this is because people are actually interested in it as a story, or because we're afraid that it might have something market-related that we simply must know about.

That's a big problem with the amount of real-time information available in the markets. People are afraid that they'll miss out on something that's really important and avidly read everything they possibly can so that nothing can come as a complete surprise.

It's a nightmare at the weekend of course. I spend my weekends in a whirl of getting to do things that I didn't do during the week, and then sit down on Sunday night and read the papers.

The thing is, I don't just read the market bits, I read everything. Because I like reading. Consequently I'm usually on information overload by midnight and want to talk about everything I've read. The man in my life usually ignores this by going to sleep immediately. That's why I win at Trivial Pursuit.

Apparently I am not alone in this info frenzy. I've read (there's a surprise!) a number of articles where people say that they can't distinguish between things they need to know or just want to know. And it seems like the Internet is partly to blame for this. I have managed to avoid getting online at home on the basis that my already stratospheric phone bill would be completely out of control if I started to surf the Net. I know what would happen I'd check out one story, get led into another and another and another and suddenly we're talking about a local call that's lasted an hour and a half. I don't spend that length of time on the phone to my mother!

I have used the Net, and quite successfully, to get information on things that were important at the time. But it takes ages to find what you want. Unless you know the site you're trying to reach, you get these little messages saying "236,980 items match your criteria" and you know it's going to take a bit of work to find the one item you actually want. There's probably an easier way to find things, but I haven't discovered it.

According to a news story (what else) the Bill and Monica affair generated more news headlines and stories than anything else since World War II. And that includes the death of Princess Diana which had been the biggest global story until then.

I can't make up my mind about it all. I didn't want to know every detail about Diana's last meal and her last car journey and her last words. I don't want to know about Bill Clinton's string of young and younger girls with big hair.

I need to know about monetary policy, inflation rates, EMU and the Irish Government's thoughts on the IEP/ DEM exchange rate. I should be reading the story about sterling and an ERM probation period.

But I want to read the story of the Hollywood couple who's £750 champagne bath was accidentally emptied by a maid at the hotel. And the one about Elton John being told to cut back on his spending.

I suppose it's all about prioritising. Something I'm sure I can read a book about.

Sheila O'Flanagan is a fixed income specialist at NCB stockbrokers.