THE words on the orange box at the entrance to Short Brothers' plant at Belfast docks have gained an extra resonance in the last six weeks. "Fokker Evacuation" they read. The danger of a factory floor emergency has become a real financial crisis with the Dutch aircraft company lurching towards collapse. In January a Fokker evacuation plan at the aerospace manufacturer put almost a quarter of its workforce, 1,500 people, on protective notice. If Fokker goes down in flames up to 1,000 of these workers will probably lose their jobs. The company hopes it can redeploy the other 500.
Earlier this week two 40 foot wings waited on the factory floor for packaging. Shorts will be paid in cash for the fuel filled wings when they are delivered to Amsterdam.
The cash on delivery arrangement is one of a number of measures put in place since September.
Last week Shorts' parent company, Canadian firm Bombardier, extinguished hopes that it would bail out Fokker. Already the Belfast line is making fewer wing sets, has stopped the night shift and has redeployed 100 of its 800 workers.
"The ironic thing is that sales of Fokker aircraft are very healthy," says company spokesman, Alec McRitchie. Shorts has been making wings for the Dutch company since the mid 1960s. It was involved in the design of the wing sets for the Fokker 70 and Fokker 100 which it manufactures on a risk sharing basis. "If they don't sell any planes we don't make any money," Mr McRitchie says.
He argues that this sector of Shorts' business accounts for 20 per cent of the turnover, although a figure of 30 per cent has been reported. Even at the modest estimate this accounts for almost £80 million of Shorts' £398 million sterling turnover in the financial year 1994/95.
Joe Bowers, president of the Federation of Shipbuilding and Engineering Unions, agrees that the problems are not caused by a lack of demand for the product.
"Fokker has a stable order book, not just promises but commitments to around 40 planes a year. It would appear that we're being carved up on the altar of profitability. "
On the factory floor at the Queens' Island plant the workers on the Fokker line wear a red uniform to identify them from the other areas. The average gross weekly wage on the line is around £300. The walls around the huge assembly display framed pictures of Fokker planes against blue skies. In the reception a review of business in Northern Ireland attributes a large part of the "soaraway success" of Shorts to the Fokker contract.
Above the workers on the factory floor, signs hanging down read: "Fokker, Continuous Improvement by Quality People." Mr Bowers says the fact that decisions about the future of Shorts' workers are being taken by others is a source of frustration. "The Shorts' workforce is a relatively efficient and productive workforce," he says. However, some of the factors pinpointed in the global recession of the aerospace industry have been high wages, restrictive work practices and a fall in orders.
According to Mr McRitchie the crunch at Shorts will probably come in a week's time when Fokker's breathing space for credit arrangements runs out on March 15th. Administrators at Fokker were expected to decide this week whether they could finance a solo flight out of trouble. The South Korean giant, Samsung and the Chinese aerospace company, Aviation Industries of China (AVIC) are reported to be interested in acquiring Fokker. Although AVIC has deemed this.
It is no coincidence that the potential rescuers of Fokker come from outside Europe. The European aerospace industry has suffered the crippling effects of falling dollar rates and high employment costs. Last October Deutsche Aerospace (DASA), which owns 51 per cent of Fokker, announced plans to shed 9,000 jobs by the end of next year.
Fokker has had at least four restructuring schemes in the last four years and first indications of the latest crisis came last August when it was forced into a public assurance that its financial obligations would be honoured by DASA.
The ripple effects of a collapse has spread to the 800 Shorts' workers on the Fokker line and almost a similar number across other areas of the Shorts' operation. Ten companies in Northern Ireland are also involved in parts manufacture for the line, and a larger number again are involved in ancilliary contracts.
As the shift workers leave the plant at 4.20 p.m., traffic lights regulate the stream of cars out the gates. A helicopter hangs overhead and a light aircraft lands at Belfast City Airport. The sale of the airport has been agreed by Shorts for £24 million.
There is no one area of Belfast that will feel the effects of mass lay offs as workers come from a 30 mile radius, according to a company spokesman.
In January last year the company shed 220 managerial, support and administration jobs, and the previous October 350 workers lost their jobs in the missile division.
In August 1994 the company announced its first real pre tax profit of £16.5 million since privatisation. That same month Fokker announced a net six month loss of £73.4 million and said it aimed to return to profitability this year.
Mr McRitchie says Shorts' other contracts are performing well. Last week the company announced a £53 million investment in the Bombardier Global Express production line. It is hoped that this will create 375 jobs over the next four years. Military contracts for the Middle East, US and British Ministry of Defence account for around 30 per cent of Shorts' turnover.
The cranes of shipbuilder Harland & Wolff, the largest in Europe, loom large on the dock skyline. The yard, as it's known in Belfast, now employs around a third of the number of Shorts' Northern Ireland workforce. Harland & Wolff had its own difficulties after privatisation in 1989. Part of its survival was attributed to its partnership with Japanese shipbuilder Kawasaki.
Shorts remains optimistic about its own survival. The best possible outcome for Shorts is probably a Dutch financed rescue of Fokker. If Samsung or AVIC buy out the company, Fokker wings could be made in the Fat East rather than East Belfast.
