Forecast brighter for Greencore

The malting industry - where Greencore is a major player with its interests in Ireland, Britain and continental Europe - has …

The malting industry - where Greencore is a major player with its interests in Ireland, Britain and continental Europe - has had a tough time in recent years.

Suffering from overcapacity among the maltsters, over production by the farmers and a high level of stocks, prices have been low. That is one reason for Greencore's poor share price performance in the past couple of years.

But Davy's John O'Reilly believes a long-awaited upturn is on the way for the malting industry, where negotiations with the big international brewers are under way.

According to Davy, demand has picked up in Asia and the Americas, stocks are light, the harvest has not been excessive and there is now little if any surplus processing capacity. In addition, large sections of the brewing industry are reported to be short on forward contracts and need to cover supplies.

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So, it's a much better time to be a maltster, specifically for Greencore, which has had to suffer depressed results in its food division because of the impact of depressed malt earnings.

The Davy analyst believes that, depending on the scale and speed of the malt upturn, its 6 per cent growth forecast for Greencore next year could rise to more than 10 per cent. This puts Greencore on a prospective price/earnings ratio of little more than seven and a yield of 5 per cent. Good value, says Davy.