A change of 1 per cent in the Republic's growth rate between now and 2005 could make a difference of almost 100,000 in the number of extra jobs to be filled. This is one of the major findings of the latest report from the National Economic and Social Forum. The report, Alleviating Labour Shortages, suggests that if growth runs at the 5 per cent forecast by the Economic and Social Research Institute we will only need to fill 176,000 extra jobs over the next five years.
This could be achieved by natural growth, plus increasing the workplace participation of the labour force from the current 58.9 per cent to 61 per cent by 2005.
However, the ESRI has consistently underestimated growth over the past decade and, if the rate is as high as 6 per cent, the report predicts 268,000 extra jobs will be created. This would require pushing participation rates up to 63.8 per cent.
"Failing this, immigration would have to increase," says the NESF. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the feasibility and even the desirability of such a higher growth-rate scenario, it says.
The report recommends that "four key challenges" be addressed to mobilise domestic labour supply. These are: providing training for the least skilled; supporting older people in the labour market; further reducing barriers to female participation; and making the workplace more accessible to people with disabilities.
