Analysis: When a State agency warned recently that Irish seafaring jobs were in imminent danger of being wiped out because of outsourcing in the industry, some might have suspected exaggeration.
Today, that dire warning by the Irish Maritime Development Office (IMDO) looks like an understatement.
In a report commissioned by Minister of State for the Marine Pat "The Cope" Gallagher, the IMDO called for immediate Government action to combat the impact of outsourcing on Irish shipping.
In the absence of increased State support for the sector, it warned, all existing 900 Irish seafaring jobs could be lost within three to five years. It now seems that more than half that number of jobs could be gone by October.
The IMDO's recommendation that tax breaks and other measures should be introduced for the sector were intended primarily to aid Irish Ferries, the biggest single employer of Irish seafarers.
Such assistance was allowed by the EU and had been provided successfully to stem the outsourcing tide in a number of member-states, the report pointed out.
Mr Gallagher received the report in recent weeks and passed it on to Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen, for his consideration.
It appears that Irish Ferries, however, has already made its mind up that outsourcing is the only way to go.
In itself, that is not entirely surprising given its contention - which is backed up by the IMDO report - that outsourcing is "the norm" among its competitors.
But the speed with which the company moved has shocked, not only staff and unions at the company, but Mr Gallagher as well.
Nothing had been expected to happen immediately as, until last week, both the company and its unions were awaiting the findings of a report on its operations by consultants Greg Sparks and Martin King. Both sides had committed themselves in June, when the review was announced, to refrain from any action or statement until it was completed.
The Sparks/King report was delivered to the parties only last week. Irish Ferries, however, immediately rejected its recommendations, which included pay cuts at both management and rank-and-file levels and a review of crewing arrangements.
In a letter to staff yesterday, the company said the recommendations did not deliver the required savings "essential to the continuation of the business".
The Seamen's Union of Ireland, which represents the majority of the group's seafaring staff, kept its powder dry yesterday.
It is anticipated many of its members may be attracted by the redundancy package on offer of up to eight weeks pay per year of service.
Siptu's decision to serve strike notice, however, has changed the picture somewhat. Irish Ferries says its offer is conditional on there being no threat of, or actual, industrial action.
Clearly, there will be a lot of tactical manoeuvring by both sides in the coming weeks. But the future for Irish seafaring jobs does indeed look bleak.
