German economy `whipping boy' is upbeat on future of struggling euro

"The finance minister who wants to be popular has missed his vocation."

"The finance minister who wants to be popular has missed his vocation."

Those are the words that Mr Theo Waigel recommends finance ministers hang over their beds.

It is a lesson he learned the hard way during his decade as Germany's longest-serving post-war finance minister.

When he took office in 1989 it must have seemed like a dream job. Germany was Europe's economic powerhouse and the country's finances were in excellent shape, with the national debt at its lowest for 15 years.

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Then came the financial black hole caused by German reunification.

The cost of absorbing the debts of the bankrupt East Germany and rebuilding its decrepit infrastructure sent the country's national debt soaring to more than DM2,000 billion (€3,911 billion), while unemployment reached its highest levels since Hitler rose to power in 1933.

Things went from bad to worse when it looked as if Germany would not meet the qualification criteria for the euro, which could have been the death knell for the common currency.

At the centre of Germany's financial meltdown was Mr Waigel, whose creative accounting and budget crises led him to label himself "Germany's favourite whipping boy".

He remained a member of parliament after the change of government in 1998 but plans to retire from politics at the next general election.

Today he is the keynote speaker at a conference on EMU and whether it is working, organised by Davy Stockbrokers.

Mr Waigel will argue that despite its drop in value against the dollar, the euro is still moving well within the bounds of what has happened on currency exchange markets over the past 20 years.

"We must look at it unemotionally," he says. "In 1984 the mark was weaker than the euro today and a dollar cost DM3.45. In 1995 a dollar cost DM1.36. That change happened in 10 years but nobody got excited about that."

He believes it is a mistake to view the common currency just in terms of strength or weakness against the dollar.

If nothing else, the qualification criteria for the euro created greater financial stability by forcing European countries to get their finances in order.

The currency has also proven itself an advantage during difficult political periods, he says, such as during the war in Kosovo and this year's fuel crisis.

"Without the euro, we would have definitely had currency crises and devaluations and we would have had European currencies competing against each other," he says.

As well as stability, Mr Waigel is convinced the euro will prove to be Europe's calling card in the global economy.

"Whoever thinks we could begin the new century with 20 different currencies and still play a role in the world economy would be disappointed," he says.

"Without the euro, Europe would become an object rather than a subject of the world economy."

Mr Waigel remains a staunch supporter of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the "clever and quiet hand" of its president, Mr Wim Duisenberg, but warns against viewing intervention to prop up the euro as a "cure-all" for the currency's woes.

He is also alarmed by the French proposal to address the euro's troubles by allowing the euro zone finance ministers to influence European monetary policy.

"If politicians had greater control of the euro, it would almost certainly be in worse shape than it is today," he laughs.

"As finance minister I was never happy when the Bundes bank raised interest rates. But like the Bundesbank was, the ECB has to be independent and only concerned with the stability and strength of the currency without having to justify itself to a parliament or another body of experts," he says.

The proposal for a political counterweight to the ECB also worries Irish policy-makers, who fear it could lead to the harmonisation of euro zone tax rates.

That would rob the country of some of its competitive advantage in attracting foreign investment, they say, but Mr Waigel has little sympathy.

He has never been a fan of Ireland's low corporate tax rates and with good reason.

While he was trying to foot the reunification bill as German finance minister, he had to grit his teeth and watch as German companies transferred billions of deutschmarks of potential German tax revenue out of his reach to their low-tax Irish operations.

He is in favour of fair tax competition within the EU, but says selective low-tax bands that attract certain service companies to certain areas only create "tax oases" in Europe.

"I don't just limit that to Ireland, but I say the same to Luxembourg, to Belgium and to the Netherlands.

"We have to be careful, otherwise we will reach a situation where capital naturally goes to certain regions, something I don't think is good for the EU as a whole," he says.

Rather than trying to interfere in ECB policy, Mr Waigel believes that euro zone finance ministers should instead concentrate on reforming their tax systems and rigid labour markets.

That would go a long way in helping to staunch the flood of funds from Europe to the United States, he says. "Then the euro will reach its revaluation potential and will become stronger against the dollar."

The EU summit in Nice next month will give ministers another chance to help the euro, if they can show the markets that they have a clear grasp of the financial consequences of eastward enlargement of the EU.

Strange as it may seem, Mr Waigel seems to take comfort in the euro's unpopularity, citing historical reasons for his opinion.

"The most important economic decisions since 1945 were not always immediately popular, but they were proved right in the end," he says.

Like all new currencies, the euro has a trust problem, he says, but trust will be earned over time and will increase when people see the notes and coins in their hand.

"I still have no doubt that this is the right decision. And when we meet again in five or ten years you will say: `Jawohl Theo Waigel, you were right!' "