FROM THE GROUD FLOOR: Apparently the US recession is or was "worse than anyone thought".Personally, I thought it was already bad enough but when the GDP numbers came out last week, second-quarter growth was a mere 1.1 per cent, despite earlier predictions of 2.4 per cent.

(Some of my best friends are economists but I wouldn't rely on them to predict night following day with any degree of accuracy.)

In mitigation, the US economists may have been basing their predictions on the previous numbers - but they were revised downwards too so that, for the first quarter of the year, GDP was restated at 5 per cent from the more market-pleasing 6.1 per cent previously announced; while for the whole of 2001, GDP showed a mere 0.3 per cent increase from the original published number of 1.2 per cent.

This means that the economy declined for most of 2001 and not just for one quarter as most people had believed. Therefore, the market has judged that the recession in the United States is not just a mild inconvenience but something worthy of more fear, as if they weren't all terrified enough.

At the moment, the talk is nervously of double dips, while those people who tentatively started to buy into marginal rallies are now beginning to think that they made their move too soon. Especially since the Institute of Supply Managers index of manufacturing activity tumbled from June's level of 56.2 to 50.5.

For most of these type of indices, a level above 50 indicates expansion and below 50 indicates contraction. All those who thought that June's number proved that the US was back on track are, like the economists, revising their opinions.

At this point, everyone in the US is looking towards the consumer, scared stiff that the blows of massive stock market falls, contracting manufacturing activity and job losses will finally stop them spending money.

As it turns out, consumer confidence is at its lowest since February. On the upside though, Americans haven't thrown in the towel yet and retail sales continue to be up on the previous year (although it has to be said that a lot of this is due to heavy discounting and zero-interest deals from retailers, particularly car manufacturers).

Meanwhile, however, companies themselves are clearly struggling and one of my favourite indicators, the corporate bond market, is reflecting that struggle. Issuing corporate paper is a way for companies to borrow money in the markets.

Back in the heady days of the boom, companies were issuing paper like it was going out of fashion, and paying interest on their borrowings, which was close to the same levels of interest paid by the government. The spread between the interest levels on corporate paper and government issues was at its narrowest ever.

But now, with equity prices falling, no-one wants corporate paper either. Traders who hold equities in FallingLikeAStone Inc. are being doubly hammered by the fact that they also hold their corporate paper. Corporate issuance is now at a seven-year low and the spreads are almost as wide as they were at the time of the Russian debt crisis in 1998. The problem for companies is that, despite incredibly low Fed funds levels, the cost of borrowing money is getting higher.

Banks have tightened their loan criteria significantly following the hits they've taken on some of the higher-profile company blow-outs this year. Many of them have announced massively increased bad-debt provisions. In Britain, for example, Barclays recently announced that provisions were up 43 per cent in the first half of this year, mainly due to exposure in Latin America and the telecoms and energy sectors.

Although those problems are specific to particular areas and particular industries, the knock-on effect will be felt by every business looking to borrow money. Those companies that really do need to borrow will find it much more expensive than this time last year; they can't afford to buy new machinery or upgrade their plant, profitability falls, they end up employing fewer staff and the whole ugly cycle repeats itself.

Meanwhile, the holders of corporate paper, watching those companies make less money than they'd originally hoped, get even more nervous, dump the paper and spreads widen some more. It's the kind of meltdown scenario that nobody wants to think about.

So what do you do when all around you are losing their heads? Buy something pleasurable instead.

Another recent survey showed that most women find chocolate more pleasurable than - well, almost anything. Women in Britain spend an average of £62 (€98) a year on chocolate (and that has to be wrong, it must be more surely). Which is why I'm wondering about the reports that there is someone out there who is trying to corner the market. Cocoa beans have been trading at a 15-year high and apparently an anonymous trader recently bought 200,000 tons - 7 per cent of the total - in the futures market.

People are trying to find out who the bean buyer is. Every newspaper article I've read indicates it's a he not a she, which is surprising, but maybe there aren't too many women trading on the future price of cocoa beans. Meanwhile, cocoa plantations on the Ivory Coast have reported a type of fungal pod rot has crossed over from Ghana. This would be particularly worrying because the Ivory Coast is the world's biggest cocoa producer and we need their beans! Fortunately the disease takes a long time to take hold and, even if it does infect certain areas, the effects are unlikely to be felt in the short to medium term.

All the same, it was the news that put the lid on a really bad day. Pension fund down, portfolio wrecked, inflation on the up and chocolate price increases lurking in the background. I have a feeling that I'm going to have to start hoarding the Flakes and the Caramels. Don't say I didn't warn you.