An information technology skills shortage in Northern Ireland is unlikely to occur over the next five years with the result that a surplus of skilled graduates could serve to boost the local economy, a report published today shows.

However, a second report to be published simultaneously, highlights shortages of more experienced IT professionals in Northern Ireland.

The first report - An Analysis of Demand and Supply conditions in the Northern Ireland IT market - bases these findings on predictions that computer services employment would rise to 6,600 on low growth forecasts and 12,000 on high growth forecasts by 2005.

The study found that demand for new graduates and non-graduate technical support staff was particularly high during 2000 but would probably be steady rather than spectacular in the period 2001-2005.

The annual supply of both specialist IT graduates and technical support staff is projected to double over the next five years, says the report. The number of graduates is projected to increase to 628 in 2004/05 with labour shortages unlikely to emerge, says the report.

The report concludes that any surplus of graduates produced in Northern Ireland would easily find employment in the Republic or in Britain. These graduates could become an important source of experienced labour supply that could be attracted back in later years.

The report advises expanding the supply of technical support staff beyond that generated by post-compulsory education and training system. But it warns against promoting large labour market surpluses of persons holding NVQ level 3 qualifications, as these people may not be particularly mobile.

The report recommends creating an overall framework for the whole stock of IT workers, not just the annual flow of new entrants. This would enable policy makers to determine more readily what measures might be needed to ensure Northern Ireland's economic development. However, a second report also published today - Employment practices, Perceptions and IT skills shortages: The case for Northern Ireland - paints a less rosy picture.

It shows that employers perceive the labour market for IT professionals as "relatively tight" for all workers above the inexperienced graduate level and pinpoints shortages of systems developers and project managers.

The two reports were commissioned by the Northern Ireland skills task force and conducted by the Northern Ireland Economic Research centre.