A drumroll of optimism rumbled through the corridors of the meeting of world financial leaders this weekend in Ottawa as policymakers dared to hope that the chances of growth and prosperity were starting to outweigh the risks.
In a statement weighted more toward the economic upside than to the still ever-present risks, finance ministers and central bank chiefs from the Group of Seven rich industrialised nations, the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Britain and Canada, said they were more upbeat now than at their last meeting, back in October.
"We discussed the global economic outlook and the current slowdown. We are in agreement that we expect it to be short-lived," said Canadian Finance Minister Mr Martin, the chairman of the two-day meeting.
The meetings, held in and near an icy Canadian capital, took place to the clang of pots and pans banged together by small groups of anti-capitalist demonstrators who say G7 policies of free trade and open markets have done nothing to help the poor and are responsible for troubles in Argentina.
At one stage protesters, scampering across a frozen lake, got to within shouting distance of the government retreat where the meeting took place. Others also trampled a large and obscene anti-G7 message into the snow within clear sight of the ministers. But the protests were far smaller than at previous international gatherings and the demonstrators, bundled up against the cold, were quickly turned back by police on snowmobiles.
The G7, in language identical to that used in previous statements, also promised to monitor exchange rates and cooperate as appropriate. But it did not mention individual currencies by name, and officials said foreign exchange rates had not been a topic, even on the sidelines.
"No country brought up the issue of currencies at the meeting today," said Japanese Finance Minister Mr Masajuro Shiokawa. Japan's yen has been sinking against other major currencies, prompting complaints from US manufacturers and speculation that Japan actually liked the idea, while host nation, Canada, is worried about its currency's recent fall to record lows against the US dollar.
Ministers admitted that the signs of strengthening economies seemed to come mostly from North America, where both the US and Canada appeared to be shaking off the worst of a slowdown deepened by the crash in consumer confidence after the September 11th attacks. But even Europe appeared to be looking up, and the head of the German central bank said he thought the worst was over for Germany. "There are not conclusive signs of a turnaround yet, but I think the whole picture justifies some cautious optimism," Mr Ernst Welteke told a news briefing.
The main risks centre on Argentina and Japan, both mired in recession, and on separate economic tracks that do not lead clearly and obviously to success. The G7's final communiqué threw Argentina a crumb of comfort by welcoming its latest policy measures as "steps in the right direction". But the G7 stressed that Buenos Aires needed to work closely with the International Monetary Fund to draw up a sustainable program that will enhance the chance of growth.
