Job growth will halve in the next decade with the numbers at work increasing by just 2 per cent annually, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) forecasts in its latest manpower survey.

Manufacturing will bear the brunt of the slowdown - employment in the sector is set to remain flat up to 2010. A collapse in manufacturing industries is not anticipated however, according to Prof Jerry Sexton, one of the authors of the study.

Total employment in the State is set to rise from 1.64 million to 1.96 million by 2010, half the 4 per cent growth rate of the Celtic Tiger years, 1991 to 2001.

Dublin and the eastern region will perform best, with a 2.5 per cent yearly climb in employment, the ESRI predicts. This compares with 1.5 per cent growth forecast in the border and midlands region and also in the south-east and south-west.

However, Government decentralisation plans may mitigate slowing job creation in the regions, particularly the west, says the ESRI.

The highest growth rates are expected in managerial and professional classes. Little expansion is anticipated in skilled and unskilled manual labour. Higher concentration of services industries in Dublin and the east will fuel job creation there, according to the ESRI.

The number of woman at work is expected to rise significantly, so that they comprise 44 per cent of those in employment by 2010, from 40 per cent at the present.

In Dublin, where women currently make up 43 per cent of the workforce, this figure is due to increase to 46 per cent. The rest of the State will see a rise from 38 per cent to 43 per cent.

The number of third-level graduates in the workforce will jump from 20 per cent to 35 per cent by 2010, says the ESRI. But it cautions that, with the number of 15- to 24-year-olds predicted to fall by 15 per cent over that period, supplying the 300,000 college goers needed to keep pace with demand may be problematic.

The report is an extrapolation of the ESRI medium-term review of July 2003.