CURRENT ACCOUNT: Some daylight seems to be appearing between Independent News & Media's London broker, Merrill Lynch, and the company's bevy of Dublin brokers. Merrill has highlighted an issue that Davy, Goodbody and NCB have not dwelt on: Indo's massive debts.
Mr Paul Sullivan, an analyst with Merrill, has put out a note suggesting that the Indo will have to repay some €270 million of its €1.35 billion debt mountain this year.
There are three possible routes the company can go, he believes. Indo will either have to issue preference shares, renegotiate its debts or else dispose of some non-core assets. Interestingly Mr Sullivan discounts the sale of the loss-making UK titles, the Independent and Independent on Sunday.
This makes sense given the attachment of executive chairman Sir Anthony O'Reilly to his "international calling cards". Instead he flags Indo's stake in mobile content provider iTouch and/or its €30 million investment in the Portuguese Lusomundo group as the most likely assets for the block. Closer to home he mentions the Indo's interest in the Star and its Dublin property portfolio.
What Mr Sullivan does not speculate about is who might buy these assets. One possibility is Sir Anthony's son Cameron who has just persuaded the great and good of Australia's business community to give him 100 million Australian dollars (€54.5 million) to invest. His company, Bayard Capital - named after a French military hero Pierre Terrail Bayard known as "the knight without fear and without reproach" - will invest in a range of areas including media.
"We are looking at existing established cash-generating business where we think there is potential to add value," said Mr O'Reilly, whose backers also include his dad. Some of Indo's assets might be just the ticket, given the O'Reilly clan's fondness for keeping things in the family.
Watching 'Dublin Daily'
Executives at Associated Newspapers, publishers of the Daily Mail and Ireland on Sunday, are watching the reaction of the market to the arrival of the Dublin Daily very closely.
The somewhat underwhelming response from the advertising community to the new arrival suggests one of two things: Dublin Daily has not done enough to sell its story or adland genuinely believes there is not enough room for another paper.
Either way it looks increasingly likely that Associated will publish its own daily title, possibly as early as the autumn. "Ireland Today" is the name most likely to be used.
Associated is refusing to confirm or deny these reports. But advertising agencies claim they have been told a daily title is on the cards, although the precise timing remains a mystery.
The new paper is in a precarious position, if it does not build up critical mass in the market early on, it is likely that Associated will simply ignore it and go ahead with its own plans.
A circulation of 25,000, which Dublin Daily is aiming for, is hardly critical mass when one considers that even the struggling Evening Herald is able to sell 104,137 copies (although this figure includes about 15,000 bulk sales).
If the Dublin Daily fails to make an impression, the backers of the project, among them Paschal Taggart and English regional group Archant, are unlikely to be bought for much, if at all, by the cash-rich Associated.
Hurrah for Horizon
Hurrah for Horizon's management team and its heroic elimination of debt from the firm's balance sheet. After two years of restructuring, the firm is finally shaking off the residue of the tech downturn.
But moving forward as a cash-positive entity raises questions for the group, particularly for its founder and executive chairman, Mr Samir Naji.
Could it be time for Mr Naji to follow the pattern recently set in Riverdeep and Alphyra and try to bring his firm private?
A debt-free balance sheet surely makes such a strategy more appealing than it was six months ago.
Mr Naji, who owns 48 per cent of Horizon, said the firm had reached "a notable turning point" earlier this week, but did not put himself forward for questions on future plans.
A further 10 per cent of the firm is shared between an employee share option scheme and other directors, a holding which might ease the path towards an MBO.
Recent research from Merrion Stockbrokers acknowledged that Horizon was indeed a good take-private candidate, at least "on paper".
