Media & Marketing: Associated Newspapers Ireland will introduce a daily mid-market tabloid. Channel 4; MTV and Nickelodeon will all offer Irish "opt-outs" to advertisers; TV ad revenue will grow by 2 per cent; Press ad revenue will rise by 1 per cent; RTÉ's TV revenue will slowly erode to 60 per cent due to the onslaught of the satellite channels, writes Emmet Oliver.
These are just some of the predictions included in a generally benign forecast from media auditing firm Billetts Ireland, obtained by The Irish Times.
In the outlook, Billetts managing director Mr Nigel Brophy says we are "witnessing one of the most turbulent times ever in media". Billetts audits the advertising spending of major companies around the world and last year it set up its Irish operation.
The general tone of its outlook for Irish media is hopeful, although there is bad news for some companies and some sectors.
The report suggests that commercial revenue in TV will be up 2 per cent with satellite channels getting the largest slice of this. It predicts four new channels will offer "opt-outs" to Irish advertisers.
Opt-outs allow mainly British-owned stations to interrupt their normal schedule and drop in advertising specific to a local market. In this case, Ireland. RTÉ 1 and TV3 are not expected to have that strong a year, but TG4, the satellites and Network 2 should experience strong growth in revenue, claims the report.
The coming threat of satellite channels to RTÉ and TV3 is illustrated by figures in the report. Back in 2000, RTÉ controlled 81 per cent of commercial TV revenue, with satellites getting only 1 per cent.
In 2004, RTÉ's share is expected to slip to 60 per cent, with the satellites, mainly Sky and channels owned by media giant Viacom, picking up 15 per cent.
In terms of buying TV airtime, Billetts suggests that TV "still represents great value in 2004" with RTÉ and the satellites prepared to drop prices and this should lower TV rates by 3 per cent.
On the newspaper side, the agency notes that overall circulation has been on the slide in recent years, although it predicts only a 1 per cent slippage in 2004.
It predicts a relatively flat year in terms of revenue with only a 1 per cent jump in ad revenue for media owners. Still, as Billetts points out, this compares with two poor years in 2002 and 2003.
It says the one thing which could shake up the market is if Associated Newspapers Ireland presents a new mid-market title to challenge the likes of the Star, Examiner and Irish Independent.
Not surprisingly, Billetts does not allude to any inside information about this possibility which has been mooted for almost a year and a half now.
Outdoor campaigns
Research from the outdoor advertising company JC Decaux has found the Cadbury Crème Egg poster campaign to be the most recalled outdoor campaign of 2003.
The posters, which appeared State-wide in January and February of last year, achieved a phenomenal 79 per cent all-adult prompted recognition figure, said JC Decaux.
The top 10 outdoor campaigns and their recognition figures for 2003 were Cadbury Crème Egg (79 per cent); Matrix Reloaded (76 per cent); Ballygowan Sports (75 per cent); Meteor (73 per cent); Bulmers Light (73 per cent); Budweiser (72 per cent); Adidas ClimaCool (70 per cent); Lucozade ( 69 per cent); Squeez (68 per cent) and Nestlé Double Cream (67 per cent).
The Cadbury Crème Egg campaign appeared under the strapline "Are You an Egghead?". The campaign was created by the Helme Partnership. Carat Ireland co-ordinated the media buying.
