IBEC warns exports rally stalled

A continued fall in officially recorded exports has prompted a warning from IBEC that the export rally seen in the first quarter has stalled.

Irish exports fell in March for the third month in a row, according to external trade figures released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) yesterday.

However, exports still exceeded imports, although the size of the surplus also slipped to just over €3 billion from €3.16 billion in February. Exports came to €7.9 billion in March, while imports were €4.85 billion, according to preliminary figures.

It is still too early to form any clear picture of the trend emerging for the year. The CSO pointed out yesterday that taking January and February - the only two months for which detailed data is available - exports are up 7 per cent on the same period last year. Growth was strongest in the medical and pharmaceutical products category.

However, IBEC have claimed that its most recent Monthly Industrial Survey indicates that the downward trend emerging in the official figures will continue.

The May IBEC/ESRI survey "showed a fall-back in companies expectations for exports, suggesting that the mild recovery experienced in the first quarter was unlikely to gain pace in the second quarter and could even stall", according to Mr David Croughan, the chief economist at the employers representative organisation.

Companies were also pessimistic about sales in the home market and order-book trends have also turned downward.

"On a more positive note, expectations for production remained firm, although the upward trend had flattened out and expectations for employment had moved from decline to stable," he said.

The gloomy predictions from IBEC contrasted with an upbeat assessment from accountants PricewaterhouseCoopers yesterday.

A projected upturn in global demand "should boost Irish export growth over the course of 2002 and provide the main driving force behind an expected gradual economic recovery," according to PwC's European Economic Outlook.