Inflation to put Fed's credibility on the line

The US Federal Reserve's decision last week to pause its two-year run of interest rate rises on expectations for growth to moderate…

The US Federal Reserve's decision last week to pause its two-year run of interest rate rises on expectations for growth to moderate could be tested this week with the release of consumer price index figures.

Some analysts say that further evidence of rising inflation pressures could throw an unwelcome spotlight on the US central bank's credibility.

In Europe, German and euro-zone flash estimates of second quarter gross domestic product will be scanned for further validation of the European Central Bank's expected interest rate rises from the current 3 per cent.

The Bank of England and Bank of Japan both release minutes from their latest rate setting meetings, with particular interest focused on the former, following a surprise rate hike this month to 4.75 per cent.

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The platform for strong US data was set with the release of US retail sales data earlier on Friday showing a monthly rise of 1.4 per cent in July, the biggest increase since January. Next Wednesday's CPI data is seen as the main highlight of the week, although PPI numbers tomorrow will also feature strongly, as will capital flows data that could throw light on how well the United States is funding its trade deficit.

Euro-zone and German flash second quarter GDP growth figures today are expected to cement the hawkish tone taken by the European Central Bank, which is seen as likely to raise interest rates perhaps to 3.5 per cent by the end of this year.

German second-quarter GDP is seen accelerating to 0.8 per cent quarter on quarter and 1.8 per cent on the year, while euro-zone growth is put at 0.7 per cent on the quarter and 2.3 per cent on the year.

The Bank of England also comes under the spotlight on Wednesday with the release of minutes from its last rate-setting meeting that yielded a surprise rise in borrowing costs to 4.75 per cent - helping sterling to a 15-month high above $1.91.

The bank's quarterly inflation report released last week signalled that rates would rise a little more before the end of this year.

Markets will also study UK consumer price index, producer prices, retail sales and employment figures for a better steer on the outlook for rates.

Monday

Results: Agilent (Q3).

AGM: Xstrata (egm).

Indicators: Euro-zone GDP (Q2); UK producer prices (July) and RICS housing survey (July); Germany GDP (Q2); Japanese tertiary indicators (June).

Others: The Irish Financial Services Regulatory Authority publishes a new car finance cost survey.

Tuesday

Results: Applied Materials (Q3), British Land (Q1), Wal-Mart (Q2).

AGM: Gulfsands Petroleum.

Indicators: US producer prices (July); UK consumer prices (July) and retail prices (July).

Others: Dublin Port Company publishes 2005 annual report and trading figures for the first half of 2006.

Wednesday

Results: British Energy (Q1), Synopsys (Q3).

Indicators: US consumer prices (July), industrial production (July), real earnings (July), housing starts (July) and building permits (July); UK unemployment (June) and average earnings (June).

Others: Bank of England publishes minutes of its August monetary policy committee meeting; Bank of Japan publishes minutes of its July monetary policy committee meeting.

Thursday

AGM: Newcourt (egm).

Indicators: Euro-zone industrial production (June) and harmonised consumer prices (July); US leading indicators (July) and e-commerce sales (Q2); UK retail sales (July).

Friday

Results: WPP (H1).

Indicators: Irish index of employment in construction (June) and external trade (June); euro-zone foreign trade (June); US wage trend indicator (Q3); German producer prices (July); French payrolls (Q2) and current account (June).