Financial journalist James Gorrie challenges the accepted wisdom that China will replace the US and the EU as dominant economic powerhouses.
Despite high annual growth rates, its position as the dominant consumer of raw materials and number one exporter of manufactured goods and the fact that it holds trillions of dollars of reserve currency, he says that it has feet of clay that are crumbling beneath it.
He presents a framework for understanding what’s going on now in China based on seven key factors: stability, sustainability, dynamism, justice, political adaptation, creativity and renewability.
He questions whether China’s political culture encourages innovation or whether the country relies on theft and “other forms of technology transfer” while driving innovators away.
He also asks tough questions about China’s renewability and sustainability suggesting that it sacrifices long-term stability and resource protection for short-term gains.
China is fragile, Gorrie maintains. A relatively small event could trigger a full-blown crisis is the author’s gloomy assessment.
