Interest rates face review

While attention will switch this week from the yen crisis to the prognosis for interest rates in the US and Europe, Asia will…

While attention will switch this week from the yen crisis to the prognosis for interest rates in the US and Europe, Asia will still exert a powerful influence on affairs. The spotlight will be on the US Federal Reserve's open markets committee (FOMC) which meets tomorrow and on Wednesday. The low rate of inflation at home and uncertainty over how much the continuing crisis in Asian markets will spill over into western economies should be enough to ensure that the FOMC leaves rates alone at this time. These factors should be enough to outweigh fears over low unemployment and strong consumer spending, which had encouraged talk of a rate rise.

Closer to home, the talk is of a rising trend in interest rates in both Britain and Germany. Following reports that the recent rise in British rates was supported seven-two by the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, with the support of the bank's governor, Mr Eddie George, the assumption is that rates will rise again sooner rather than later - especially in the light of concern over the expansionary plans mooted recently by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Mr Gordon Brown.

In Germany, there is talk of a rate rise prior to federal elections in September following the June report from the Bundesbank. While German rates look set to rise in the second half of the year, it had been thought the Bundesbank would be slow to raise them and, consequently, the political temperature before what is likely to be the most closely contested election in a decade.

At home, rates will not fall until the third quarter of the year if recent indications are anything to go by. Word from one of the European Central bank's central figures that rates would not have to be standardised until January 1st, 1999 - rather than before the end of this year - might ease some of the pressure on Dame Street.

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Monday

Results: Baring Emerging, Beale (H1), Camell Laird Holdings, Fairfield Enterprise (H1), Fitness First (H1), Kewill Systems, Liberfabrica, Minorplant Systems (H1), Richards (H1), Toad

A.G.M.: Brazilian Smaller Co, Inch Kenneth Kajong, Martin Intl Holdings (e.g.m.), M&G Recovery Inv Tst, Omnimedia (e.g.m.), WPP Group, Zergo Holdings (e.g.m.).

Meetings: Acumen briefing on reasons why SMEs succeed/fail in cross-Border trade. Indicators: British consumer credit (May) and M0 money supply data (Jun); US new home sales (May).

Others: Publication of "Ireland's Entrepreneurial Elite" by Richard Curran and Declan Hayes; Official opening of new IBIS hotel; Pavee Point Travellers Centre publishes "Traveller Market Traders Directory" and "Trading in the Traveller Economy".

Tuesday

Results: Brasway, Greene King, Kenwood Appliances, MFI Furniture, Peel Holdings, Ptarmigan Int Cap, TGI, Tops Estates, Whitecroft.

A.G.M.: CRT (e.g.m.), Dorling Kindersley (e.g.m.), Hiscox, Kleinwort High Income (e.g.m.), Safeway, Silentnight Holdings.

Meetings: US Federal Reserve's open market committee meets; Dail Select Committee on Finance and General Affairs hearings on Investor Compensation Bill; Dail Select Committee on Enterprise and Small Business.

Indicators: Irish industrial disputes figures (Q1); US consumer confidence (Jun) and Chicago purchasing managers' index (Jun)

Others: European Central bank inaugurated (Frankfurt); McDonald's Ireland announces detail of future development and employment plans in Ireland; Presentation on European survey on e-commerce by Cambridge Technology Partners.

Wednesday

Results: Marston Thompson & Ever.

A.G.M.: Bank of Ireland, Cafe Inns, Capital Gearing Trust, Edinburgh IT, Hardy Underwriting Group, IFG Group, Jupiter Geared Capital, Land Securities, Metrodome Group (e.g.m.), Sutcliffe Speakman (e.g.m.).

Meetings: US Federal Reserve open market committee meeting continues; Oireachtas Joint Committee on Finance and the Public Service meets to discuss regulations and supervision of financial institutions; Oireachtas Joint Committee on European Affairs; Oireachtas Joint Committee on Heritage and the Irish Language discusses Princes Holdings and Irish multi-channel coverage.

Indicators: US leading indicators (May).

Others: New Northern Assembly provisionally expected to hold its first meeting (Belfast); Institute of Advertising Practitioners' inaugural president's lunch.

Thursday

Results: HP Bulmer Holdings, GEC, Jurys Hotel Group.

A.G.M.: Cookson Group (e.g.m.).

Meetings: Oireachtas Joint Committee on Public Enterprise and Transport receives presentations from Dublin Bus and Bus Eireann.

Indicators: Irish index of employment in construction (May); US non-farm payrolls (Jun) and minutes of May FOMC meeting.

Friday

A.G.M.: Concurrent Technology (e.g.m.), Corporate Services (e.g.m.), James Crean, Incepta, John Lusty Group, Oliver Group (e.g.m.).

Indicators: Irish unemployment (Jun).

Others: US Independence Day holiday.