IRELAND'S chances of joining the single currency have increased marginally over the last week according to JP Morgan. According to the investment firm's indicator Ireland is now beginning to pull away from the UK in terms of our chances of joining. Over the past two months the UK's chances have diminished from around 50 per cent to only 18 per cent this week. Ireland is still below its highs but has now reached a 58 per cent likelihood.

The probabilities are based on interest rate expectations across Europe and specifically on the interest rate swops market where investors swop floating rate notes for fixed rates and vice versa.

France and Belgium have a 100 per cent chance of joining along with Germany.

The Club Med countries of Spain, Portugal and Italy are all now beginning to draw together and their chances of joining have been improving. The Nordic countries chances on the other hand are diminishing slightly. Interestingly Sweden is given a 63 per chance - higher than Ireland - despite its Government's announcement that it would not be participating in the first wave.