Irish inflation is double euro-zone average

The rate of price increases in the economy remained stubbornly high last month with the Consumer Price Index rising by 0

The rate of price increases in the economy remained stubbornly high last month with the Consumer Price Index rising by 0.9 of a percentage point, for the second successive month.

This leaves the annual rate of inflation unchanged at 4.8 per cent, or double the euro-zone average, fuelling concerns that economic recovery could be undermined.

More expensive petrol and home heating oil and higher prices at hotels, restaurants and pubs, were the main drivers pushing up inflation last month, according to the Central Statistics Office.

The EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices increased by 0.7 of a percentage point, bringing the annual increase to 5 per cent, compared to 5.1 per cent in the year to March. This index is calculated in each EU member-state.

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The employers' organisation, IBEC, said excessive inflation was largely confined to the service sector and to some areas dominated by State-run activity.

It claimed that it would damage the economy's fragile recovery to a health growth path and would only moderate if wage trends were brought into line with those in the EU and the UK and value for money was given "more than lip-service in the delivery of major public services". There also needed to be more competition with a stronger role for the private sector.

According to the CSO, among the main factors contributing to the monthly change was a rise in the cost of miscellaneous goods and services fuelled by increases in motor and house insurance premiums, higher childcare costs and increased charges for nursing homes, hygiene products and hairdressing.

Transport costs rose with increases in the price of motor fuels, cars and fares for sea and air travel; the health area rose as a result of higher hospital charges and restaurants, hotels and licenced premises rose with higher prices for beer, wine, spirits, soft drinks, meals out and charges for accommodation.

Other contributory factors included higher average mortgage payments, increases in the cost of home heating oil, higher postal charges and increases in the cost of tobacco products, off-licence alcoholic drinks and food.

The most notable changes in the year were increases under the headings: miscellaneous goods and services, education, restaurants, hotels and licenced premises and recreation and culture. These were partly offset by a decline in the price of clothing and footwear.

The rate of annual inflation - at 4.8 per cent in April - is continuing to exceed expectations that inflation will settle at 4.5 per cent by year-end. Inflation rose by 4.7 per cent in February and 4.9 per cent in January.

The Economic and Social Research Institute has warned that inflation now represents the single biggest threat to the Republic's economic prospects.

Commenting on the latest increase, Bloxham Stockbrokers noted that prices were still rising at a much higher rate than was desirable.

"It is hard to see the headline rate falling back below 4 per cent in the near future. Furthermore, as with euro-zone inflation in general, the risks are to the upside going forward," said economist, Mr Alan McQuaid.

The outlook for inflation across Europe has also worsened in recent months with price hikes linked to the euro cash changeover and higher indirect taxes.

The European Central Bank has signalled that it will not tolerate a prolonged deterioration in inflation and could raise interest rates in the short-term. Mr McQuaid warns that this could further exacerbate the problem.

Other economists believe that Irish inflation will moderate throughout the rest of 2002.

"With poor consumer demand forecast, we expect that prices should fall to attract consumers," said Ulster Bank economist, Mr Niall Dunne.