ISEQ does well out of Elan's good fortune

Investor:   So far this year the ISEQ Overall Index has risen by approximately 9 per cent, putting it well ahead of most other…

Investor:  So far this year the ISEQ Overall Index has risen by approximately 9 per cent, putting it well ahead of most other European equity markets.

This statistic does flatter to deceive because the bulk of this gain is due to the spectacular recovery in Elan Corporation's share price, which has now more than trebled since end-December 2003.

If Elan were excluded from the calculations, the ISEQ index would only be up by just over 1 per cent. That figure portrays a much more lacklustre picture for Irish-quoted companies in 2004.

Having previously risen to become Ireland's largest quoted company as measured by market capitalisation, Elan's fall from grace meant that it dropped out of the top 10 Irish listed companies.

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The company's phoenix-like rise from the ashes has brought it firmly back into the top 10 and with a current market capitalisation of €7 billion, it is now not far behind AIB (€10.4 billion), Bank of Ireland (€9.9 billion) and CRH (€9.2 billion).

There must now be fairly short odds on Elan eventually regaining its position as the most highly capitalised stock on the Irish market.

As well as being one of the largest stocks on the market Elan is also the riskiest stock and many investors had their fingers burnt when the share price collapsed.

For those investors with a somewhat lower appetite for risk one of the market stalwarts, CRH, has recently been making a comeback.

With 50 per cent of its sales generated in the US, the prolonged weakness in the US dollar exchange rate has had a depressing impact on CRH's share price.

Against the headwind of the negative translation impact of the weak dollar on profits the company found it very difficult to achieve growth in overall profits.

Nevertheless, the underlying strength and geographical diversification of its businesses meant that profits were broadly maintained throughout these tougher trading conditions.

In recent weeks the share price has begun to move forward and the year-to-date return is now just under 7 per cent.

Recent developments in the US are likely to be positive for CRH.

At the macro level the US economy is growing strongly and should be capable of comfortably coping with any prospective interest rate rise.

Also, the US dollar has recovered some ground versus the euro and there is now a real possibility that the peak in the €/$ exchange rate has already been seen.

One area of uncertainty in the US for CRH concerns the federal highway-spending programme.

The US Senate and House of Representatives have been considering a new six-year spending programme for quite some time.

Initially, it was thought that growth of 7-9 per cent per annum would eventually be approved.

However, recent developments point to a political agreement that would result in an annual growth rate of 4-6 per cent. Infrastructure spending accounts for about 40 per cent of CRH's sales in the US, and highway spending is a very high proportion of this.

While the slower growth implied by these funding proposals is a negative for CRH, an early agreement on the programme would be positive as it would remove a large element of uncertainty regarding the federal roads programme over the medium term.

In addition, there could well be a short-term boost to activity as agreement on the proposals could lead to the release of some pent-up demand in spending.

In terms of the normal valuation yardsticks, CRH offers very good value relative to its peers. CRH is currently trading on a price-earnings ratio (PER) of 11.2 and offers a dividend yield of 1.6 per cent.

Lafarge trades on a more expensive PER of 13.4 although it does offer a higher dividend yield of 3.5 per cent.

The two UK companies in the table, RMC Group and Wolseley, also trade on a higher PER than CRH's but both provide higher dividend yields.

CRH's lower dividend payout reflects its continuing acquisitions strategy that has so far proved to be very successful.

If economic growth continues to improve across CRH's markets it will give a cyclical boost to profits.

If this is combined with a continuation in CRH's tried and tested acquisitions strategy then the shares should be capable of building on the modest improvement seen so far this year.