It's A Crash Correction?

The markets may be dogged by uncertainty with even the professionals unsure about where the Far Eastern and US markets will bottom…

The markets may be dogged by uncertainty with even the professionals unsure about where the Far Eastern and US markets will bottom out but small investors in stocks are strongly advised not to rush out and sell the shares they hold. And for those with the resources and the capacity to take a chance, there is the possibility of making strong gains if they can sell and get back into the market close to when it bottoms out - or indeed commit new cash to the market as it falls.

But the best advice is not to be too greedy. Investors who hold out for the very bottom of any market may get burned. Even the big institutional funds tend not to be able to call the bottom correctly.

While Hong Kong's Hang Seng and the Dow Jones indices have taken a battering over recent weeks it may be that the worst is not yet over.

The bottom line is that if you only have a few thousand shares, hang on to them as you may never be able to buy them back again. Huge problems with supply in many world markets helped drive up prices in the first place and it is also worth remembering that as the share price is falling the dividend yield is rising. If bank shares, in particular, were to fall far enough their yield could reach a level close to a long-term money market investment.

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According to recent research the average bear (falling) market - dominated by selling - lasts just one year, compared with the average bull (rising) markets of around four years. And the average fall during a bear market is just 26.4 per cent compared with average rises of 103.1 per cent during bull markets.

This means that if you can ride out the short and comparatively small bear markets, the subsequent upswings have always lasted longer and been comparatively more rewarding. However, the bull market of the last few years has been the second longest since 1954 and would be the longest if it continued to the end of 1997. So investors may be facing a more prolonged slide than many had anticipated.

But for those who have serious money tied up in the markets, Mr Jim Power, chief economist at Bank of Ireland, recommends selling some investments now and then buying back at a later date when it appears that the market might be turning.

While many stocks look as if they are good value, it is possible that they will be even more attractive over coming weeks. Mr Power also points out that the Irish market will not be immune to further significant falls in US stocks.

According to a recent survey in USA Today, 66 per cent of private US investors said they would do nothing if the market crashed while 14 per cent said they would buy more stock. Almost 13 per cent said they would move some or all of their money out of stocks. However, the percentage of professional fund managers who would buy into a weak market is far higher.

While many investors are willing to take a direct punt on an individual company's stock and buy a few hundred or thousand shares, the services offered by the large stockbrokers are popular with those who have significant amounts of cash to invest.

Ms Ciara Hurley, portfolio manager at Goodbody Stockbrokers, says most of her clients are attracted by the visibility and transparency of a directly-controlled portfolio.

However, the one problem with these stockbroker-managed portfolios is that they are typically for amounts of £50,000 or above.

She has been advising her clients to remain calm through the market maelstrom on the basis that the fundamentals remain good. "You have to remember that all the main indices are up significantly since the beginning of this year."

She says that a number of investors have been holding back in recent weeks as valuations appeared too high. But there may now be a case for identifying specific bargain stocks, particularly those which are virtually guaranteed to pay attractive dividends.

Ms Hurley advises those who can afford to take a risk to use up one-third of their available cash on selective stock picking.

In addition, investors who can afford to stick with their investments over three to five years should be looking at the financials, particularly AIB or Bank of Ireland, as well as Waterford Wedgewood for its earnings visibility or CRH which Goodbody's has recently upgraded.

For investors who would prefer a more defensive portfolio without exposure to the financials which have had a good run, then Greencore, Waterford Wedgwood and Heitons - which is benefiting from the strong economy - could be good bets, she says.

On a shorter-term basis, she recommends investing in Ryans or Jurys hotels which will benefit from the buoyant economy as well as Powerscreen, CRH and one of the banks on the basis that the yields are good.

While it is almost always better value to invest directly in equities because of the potential for greater return, many investors will not feel happy with this kind of exposure and can instead opt for the lower-risk guaranteed investment products offered by financial institutions.