Jobs growth bodes well for State's economy

ECONOMICS:  In a decade and a half of reporting on economic issues, without doubt the biggest change has been in the jobs market…

ECONOMICS: In a decade and a half of reporting on economic issues, without doubt the biggest change has been in the jobs market. Back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, we spent a lot of time musing on the poor employment performance of our economy, which did not seem to be able to create jobs even when it was growing. Now, to judge by the latest figures, the economy is a job-creating machine.

Much has changed in the meantime, of course, and it is little exaggeration to say that the economy has been transformed. But even given this, the jobs figures published on Tuesday - lost a little in a busy week of IFSRA reports and Northern talks - were extraordinary. At a time when conditions in other EU labour markets are flat, total employment here increased by 57,200, or 3.1 per cent, over the past 12 months.

And while too much should not be read into volatile quarterly movements, the big gains were in the most recent quarter, measuring (roughly) the difference between April and July of this year. During the spring months, the economy was steaming ahead.

Nor, of course, does the relatively strong Irish performance mean that we are coming from behind. In fact, the unemployment rate here, estimated at 4.3 per cent on the basis of the latest live register figures, is less than half the euro-zone average.

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There has been much debate about the economic model here and the widening gap between those at the top and those at the bottom. And much of the negative commentary on what has been achieved seems to take the improvement in employment prospects almost for granted.

Pretty much anyone with the necessary skills can now get a job, if they wish to - a huge transformation on a decade ago.

There is a need for a focus on policy measures to help people without the necessary expertise to get on the employment ladder and to address the wider background of disadvantage from which many of them come.

But in the debate about how our economy is to be run in future and the appropriate balance between tax and spending, it would be a grave mistake not to put the maintenance of something close to full employment as a central goal - and one that will not be easily achieved.

We are now in the lucky position of having an average unemployment level well below our European partners and at the bottom of the league of industrialised countries. There is little enough that economic policy can do to avoid the inevitable short-term ups and downs, which are largely based on international trends; the challenge is the longer-term one of maintaining our position as an economy with, on average, a very low unemployment rate.

Having held up well over a couple of difficult years, it is clear that the Irish jobs market has now come storming back. Most of the increase over the past year has been in full-time positions.

Allowing for a small fall in the working week over the past year from 37.4 hours to 37.2 hours, the total amount of hours worked in the economy has risen by about 2.6 per cent in the 12 months to June.

Increasing productivity will also have contributed to economic growth - not only are more people at work, on average each one is producing a bit more.

The pattern of jobs growth reflects what has been happening in the economy. Construction continues to boom and employment in the sector has jumped by 10 per cent over the past year. Financial services, which took a hit after the dotcom bubble burst, is back recruiting, as are services in general, the retail trade and the health sector.

There is a strong and continuing increase in the number of self-employed people, up 14,000 to 317,000.

The negatives are interesting too. The Minister for Tourism John O'Donoghue may have doubts about the existence of "rip-off" Ireland, but it appears that the tourists don't. Employment in hotels and restaurants fell a hefty 7,600 to 109,800. In this light, the decision to hold down excise duties in the Budget to keep down the inflation rate seems a sensible one, particularly given yesterday's figures showing the rate back at close to 3 per cent.

The problem now is that the actual level of prices here is at the top of the euro-zone league and only a prolonged period of below average inflation can change that.

Not surprisingly, the "production industries" category, which includes much of the manufacturing sector, is continuing to show a gradual decline, with a 2,100 fall in the year to just below 300,000. This is a diverse sector but many of the firms in it are subject to a fundamental force - the movement of much manufacturing activity eastwards.

What of the outlook? Interestingly, we are moving back to the position of the late 1990s with very low unemployment and even the emergence of labour shortages in some areas. Inevitably jobs growth slows a bit in this situation, unless inward migration picks up.

Perhaps the biggest influence in the short term will be the construction sector - even if house-building remains at a high level over the next couple of years, employment growth in the sector surely cannot continue at its current rate.

However, the experience of the last few years is reason for optimism. Jobs growth in the booming services sector has more than compensated for losses elsewhere. While employment in manufacturing has declined, the overall wealth-creating contribution of the export sector has remained healthy.

There will always be worries about the global picture and currently the fall of the dollar and relatively high oil prices top the list. But we now have a dynamic and flexible jobs market.

Given a fair international wind, could the total number of people at work , now 1.89 million, top two million over the next few years?

Finally, as I move on, thanks to those who have helped me to track the economic trends over the past 15 years - and particularly to those who have taken the time to read about it.

Cliff Taylor

Cliff Taylor

Cliff Taylor is an Irish Times writer and Managing Editor