Legal wrangle shows importance of sale outcome

When Esat executives file into the High Court this morning with accounts of bid-rigging and errors, they are likely to pose more…

When Esat executives file into the High Court this morning with accounts of bid-rigging and errors, they are likely to pose more questions than they answer. Legal issues include whether "referral" bids are acceptable and industry issues raised cover whether a prolonged wrangle over Cablelink could delay Telecom Eireann's flotation and how much Cablelink is actually worth.

As can already be seen from the bidding, Cablelink is worth different amounts to different people.

The stakes would appear to be highest for Esat Telecom. The company has carved a niche for itself as Telecom Eireann's main domestic rival. Over the past two years it has built a high-technology, fibre-optic network beneath the busiest areas of Dublin and other cities in the Republic.

Esat owns just under 50 per cent of Esat Digifone and has made a success of operating the Republic's second mobile phone franchise.

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Initially offering land-based service to businesses, Esat has competed strongly for Telecom Eireann's domestic customers since deregulation last December.

Precisely because it has spent such time, and money, carving out a position for itself, Esat executives are bound to see the purchase of Cablelink as a crucial part of its future strategy.

In an apparent acceptance that it did not have either deep enough pockets or the necessary cable expertise to buy and run Cablelink on its own, Esat chose its bidding partner carefully. Charter is owned by Mr Paul Allen, the man who, along with Mr Bill Gates, founded Microsoft. One of the top 10 cable companies in the United States, it is seen as focused firmly on digital age technology.

Charter has specialised in buying old-style cable companies and revamping them to a high technological standard to offer customers advanced video and cable services, high-speed Internet access and telephony.

This is exactly the type of transformation that whoever buys Cablelink will need to carry out, an overhaul that is likely to cost around £200 million (€254 million).

With Esat's knowledge of the Irish telephony market, the economies of scale available if Cablelink could use Esat's fibre-optic network, and Charter's expertise in providing cable Internet access, the bid looked strong. The fact that Mr Allen is used to paying large sums for cable companies added financial strength.

But if owning Cablelink would allow Esat to consolidate its position and challenge Telecom Eireann's supremacy on a far more comprehensive basis, losing out in the bidding would be a major setback for the company.

Were NTL, for example, to prevail eventually, Esat would rapidly find its number two slot challenged by the newcomer. NTL would be offering rival telephone and Internet services to at least 360,000 customers in the Republic, with some economies of scale coming into play because of NTL's extensive operations in Northern Ireland.

Under these circumstances, Esat could be squeezed out of the domestic telephone and Internet business, and forced to concentrate on supplying broadband service to the corporate sector.

Other permutations and developments are possible in the wake of the sale of Cablelink and analysts predict a wave of consolidation.

One company regarded by many as a juicy, well-run morsel is Cable Management Ireland (CMI), the 60,000-subscriber, Dublin-based cable provider that made its own bid for Cablelink. If CMI fails to buy Cablelink, it is likely to see several suitors beat a path to its door, including whoever buys Cablelink and perhaps one or two disappointed bidders.

Part of CMI's attraction is its location. The company operates in the Swords and Malahide area of Dublin, as well as in north Kildare, Wicklow and Mullingar, areas of strong population growth.

Another company with several options in the post-sale scenario is TCI Ireland. The company controls Princes Holdings' network, delivering cable and MMDS service to some 150,000 customers, an asset which will surely prove irresistible to whoever buys Cablelink. Executives at TCI have been buoyed by the high prices bid for Cablelink, reckoning that such offers raise the market value of Princes Holdings.

The company also maintains that if it does not get Cablelink it will press ahead with its own plans to roll out a digital service - including rapid Internet access and telephone calls - to its customers. It already has a licence allowing it to offer telephone services across the Republic, not just to the customers it now serves.

For Telecom Eireann, the sale of Cablelink has so far been a spectacular success, but one which could quickly turn sour if today's legal battle drags on. Telecom wants to sell Cablelink before proceeding to its own flotation; uncertainty over a £500 million asset is not good for market confidence.

But on two levels, Telecom must be delighted with the process. Firstly, the prices being bid - reportedly up to £500 million - represent more than double what industry analysts said the cable provider was worth less than a year ago. Secondly, as Telecom must be aware, the higher the price a future telephone-providing rival pays for Cablelink, the more likely that company is to try to recoup its investment by raising prices. This in turn would make it less competitive to Telecom Eireann.

But compared to the prices being paid for US cable companies, Cablelink still looks like good value. A price of £500 million is equivalent to around $1,900 per subscriber. Even factoring in the cost of a £200 million revamp of Cablelink, the price per customer would be $2,628. Earlier this week, AT&T paid $4,910 per customer for MediaOne, while Adelphia paid $3,900 per customer for Harron.