THERE has been little change over the past week in market expectations of which states would join the first wave moving to monetary union, according to the J P Morgan index.

The index shows some increase in market confidence that Ireland would be among the first wave, with the Irish rating moving from 56 per cent a week ago to 61 per cent yesterday.

The index is calculated by using trading prices in the interest rate swaps market. It thus measures investors' expectations about monetary union. France and Belgium are seen as certain to join Germany and, according to the J P Morgan figures, Spain, Portugal and Finland are also more likely to join than Ireland. The likelihood of Italy joining has fallen back, possibly influenced by forecasts from the EU that its budget deficit will be above the 3 per cent ceiling.

The Irish rating appears to continue to be influenced by concerns among some international investors about the impact of the rise in the value of sterling on the pound.