After a period of soul searching over agri-Ireland's loss of privilege in an enlarged Europe, the main farm organisations will be saying Yes to Nice next month.

It is hard to escape the impression that the Government has been able to point to the benefits the sector has had over the years of membership and indicated that to oppose the treaty would be out of the question.

Last week, the Minister for Agriculture, Mr Walsh, spelled out the reality of EU membership to Irish farmers and the vast benefits it had brought them.

"Since we joined the EU, Irish farmers have received direct payments of £23 billion [#29 billion] from the Union and this is continuing on an annual basis of direct, in-the-envelope, cheques of £1 billion-plus annually," he said.

"Huge amounts of money are coming in annually from the Union into farming and the rural economy through the Rural Environment Protection Scheme, Early Retirement Scheme and programmes like the LEADER development programmes, and those must continue," he said.

"We should be confident enough to be able to get on with life and we should not be worried about the dilution of these supports," he said.

This final statement is at the core of farming support for the treaty because both the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers' Association (ICMSA) and the Irish Farmers' Association (IFA) are concerned that enlargement would mean less money for their members.

Earlier this month the ICMSA mandated its president, Mr Pat O'Rourke, to recommend a yes vote in the referendum, provided he received a firm assurance from the Government that EU funding for agriculture and rural development would be adequate to meet obligations under the Agenda 2000 agreement and safeguard the European model of agriculture post2006, after enlargement.

In its referendum literature to members urging them to vote Yes, the IFA said the outcome of the negotiations at Nice in the three main areas was broadly satisfactory from the Republic's perspective.

Central to this is a second bite at the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which was recently reformed in the Agenda 2000 document, which broadly shifted agricultural supports away from the produce to the producer.

The Agenda 2000 policy is up for review in the next 18 months and the Government and the farm organisations believe they will be able to hold on to the levels of compensation that they obtained in those negotiations.

The farming organisations have identified the next round of World Trade talks as having a longer-term impact on the future of farming than extending the EU eastwards.

The ICMSA, in a submission to the Oireachtas Joint Committee on European Affairs, said the type of agricultural policy to evolve from the enlargement and a World Trade Organisation agreement would ultimately decide the future of Irish farming.

"These policy developments between now and 2006, and beyond, will determine whether the Irish farm has a viable economic future or not," said the submission.

It said the EU budget had been finalised up to 2006, with appropriations for agriculture and finance also set down for the accession of candidate member-states.

"Given this, the level of support available to Irish farms, subject to the mid-term review of the Agenda 2000 agreement, is reasonably secure to 2006, excluding the cost of BSE and foot-and-mouth disease.

"However, post-2006, ICMSA is seriously concerned that the level of support for agriculture in the existing EU member-states will decline because of the increased cost of agricultural support in an enlarged EU," it said.

`THE Government cannot allow this to happen and must ensure the current level of support is maintained post-2006," it said.

The IFA said it had always been "pro-Europe" and had supported steps to date on increased integration of the EU, campaigning strongly for members in 1972 and supporting the Single European Act in 1986, Maastricht in 1992 and the 1997 Amsterdam Treaty.

"It is in the interest of Irish farm families that we have efficient institutions and smooth decision-making procedures at EU level," said the IFA statement.

"The EU is our home market. We benefit from transfers of well over £1 billion a year from Common Agricultural Policy, including livestock premiums and arable area aid (£625 million); 50 per cent of the accompanying measures, REPS, Farm Retirement (£200 million); CAP support for milk; and export refunds on a range of products to about £380 million," it said.

Both organisations seem to have little difficulty with the organisational changes of the Union, with the IFA saying that qualified majority voting will mean the Republic cannot be over ruled by the EU in relation to taxation.

It also said the re-weighting of the votes in the Council of Ministers would mean the Republic, with its alliance-building ability, would continue to function as before.

Even after Nice, it would continue to have voting weight more than twice its share of the EU population.

The ICMSA said it was concerned at the loss of a commissioner in the future but the IFA said this would equally be the case for countries as large as Germany, France and Britain.

Tomorrow: Mick O'Reilly of the ATGWU on the economic concerns surrounding the Nice Treaty